Bitcoin Price Dips As US Govt. Shutdown Odds Surge to 84%

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin’s price is trading below its realized price, and large holders with 100-1000 BTC are showing signs of weakness.
• Whale activity is intensifying downside risks, with a major holder depositing about $340 million in BTC to Binance.
• Macro uncertainty is adding to bearish sentiment, as Polymarket now prices an 84% chance of a U.S. government shutdown before Feb. 14

Bitcoin price continues to be under strong selling pressure as the chance of US government shutdown spikes to 84%. As of press time, BTC is once again hovering around $67,500, with its market cap now dropping to $1.35 trillion. However, if the US government goes for a shutdown on Feb. 14, it could derail the future liquidity plans.

Bitcoin Price Continues to Face Downside Pressure

After a brief bounce to $71,000, Bitcoin price corrected 5% from there as the bulls failed to keep the momentum. Currently, BTC is trading around $67,500, with on-chain data showing clear signs of weakness.

Bitcoin price is now trading under its realized price of $69,000. This is where big players control anywhere between 100 and 1,000 BTC. This marks a notable shift in market structure, as such holders are collectively underwater on a realized-cost basis.

Historical comparisons suggest this is not a short-term trading signal. The last time BTC traded below its realized price after the 2022 peak, it stayed there for nearly 7 months.

This phase typically marks the base-building and absorption phases. It doesn’t reflect any immediate trend continuation.

Bitcoin Price Under Pressure Amid Whale Dumping

On-chain data shows that the Bitcoin price has remained under pressure amid whale dumping. A large Bitcoin holder has transferred a combined $340 million worth of BTC to Binance in two transactions. Crypto analyst Ted Pillows noted that this brings deliberate selling pressure on BTC.

Pillows noted that each deposit was followed by a sharp price reaction, with Bitcoin falling between $2,700 and $3,000 within a few hours of the transfers. The timing has raised concerns among traders about sizable whale movements to exchanges.

Moreover, blockchain analytics firm Santiment has also spotted big whale movements. Over the past week, a total of 19,162 Bitcoins have flown out of crypto exchange Binance.

According to Santiment, the outflows are due to retail distrust of Binance following its perceived role in the Oct. 10, 2025, market selloff. The analysis firm noted that this trend could persist in the near term. It added that these Bitcoins could either end up in cold wallets or move to other exchanges.

US Govt. Shutdown Could Pressure on BTC

The likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown before Feb. 14 is rising sharply. Prediction platform Polymarket assigns an 84% probability to a federal government shutdown ahead of the deadline.

The odds have surged by roughly 66% in recent days. It reflects growing skepticism that lawmakers will reach a funding agreement in time.

The shutdown risk is directly linked to expiring federal funding. Doubts are rising that Congress can finalize either a full budget or even a short-term continuing resolution before the cutoff. Polymarket data suggests investors see little chance of legislation passing this week.

The political uncertainty has unfolded alongside a broader market sell-off. Total market capitalization has fallen 1.8% to about $2.3 trillion. Also, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has slipped to 9 from 10.

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