Bitcoin’s $2.3B Loss Shock Echoes 2021 Crash

Key Insights

• Bitcoin futures open interest dropped 28% in 30 days.
• Realized losses reached one of the worst levels recorded.
• Derivatives markets showed persistent downside hedging bias.

Bitcoin price prediction turned cautious after Bitcoin traded near $66,600 this week as leverage demand weakened and derivatives signaled fear. Futures open interest fell to multi-month lows while realized losses spiked, raising questions about whether support near $60,000 could face renewed pressure. The move followed broader macro uncertainty and fading momentum after repeated rejection above $72,000.

The broader Bitcoin price prediction narrative shifted from momentum chasing to capital preservation. Investors focused on whether institutional participation remained intact after heavy liquidations hit derivatives markets. Although spot exchange-traded fund flows stayed active, options and funding metrics suggested professional traders reduced risk exposure. This divergence between spot activity and derivatives sentiment framed the current phase as fragile rather than impulsive.

Bitcoin Price Futures Data Show Weak Conviction

CoinGlass data showed aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest declined to $34 billion on Thursday, marking a 28% contraction over 30 days. However, when denominated in Bitcoin, exposure held near 502,450 coins, implying the drop reflected price adjustments rather than outright capital exit. Forced liquidations accelerated the decline, totaling $5.2 billion during the past two weeks.

That contraction occurred even as spot volumes remained firm, which suggested leverage traders reacted faster than longer-term participants. Funding rates failed to recover above the neutral 12% annualized threshold for four consecutive months, signaling limited appetite for aggressive long positioning. Laevitas records confirmed bearish bias persisted despite brief rebounds earlier in the week.

Delta skew reached 22%, indicating traders paid a premium for protective puts rather than upside exposure. Under balanced conditions, the metric typically ranged between minus 6% and plus 6%. The skew last shifted toward bullish territory in May 2025 after Bitcoin reclaimed $93,000 following a retest of $75,000.

Capitulation Metrics Rival Past Bitcoin Price Crashes

CryptoQuant analysis by IT Tech reported seven-day average realized net losses climbed to $2.3 billion, ranking among the top three to five capitulation events recorded. The analyst compared the scale to the 2021 crash, the 2022 Terra and FTX collapse, and the mid-2024 correction. Bitcoin had fallen nearly 50% from its October peak above $126,000 before stabilizing near recent lows.

Such loss spikes historically preceded rebounds, though relief rallies often occurred within prolonged downturns. CryptoQuant researchers noted that Bitcoin’s realized price stood at $55,000, a level historically associated with bear-market bottoms. Previous cycles saw the price trade 24% to 30% below that benchmark before stabilization occurred.

Nick Ruck of LVRG Research stated the capitulation reflected short-term holder panic amid broader macro pressures. He argued that while oversold conditions often precede recovery phases, confirmation required sustained institutional buying or miner stabilization. Ruck’s projected potential structural support could range from $40,000 to $60,000, depending on broader conditions.

Macro and ETF Context

U.S. Labor Department figures showed the economy added 181,000 jobs in 2025, below earlier estimates, which fed concerns about slowing growth. BBC reporting cited White House officials who attributed the moderation partly to immigration policy shifts that reduced labor supply expansion. This shift occurred because markets began pricing in earlier Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Equities remained resilient, with the S&P 500 trading just 1% below its all-time high, while gold reclaimed the $5,000 psychological level. That divergence placed Bitcoin price prediction models under strain, as the asset decoupled from traditional risk benchmarks. Investors questioned why equities held firm while crypto derivatives signaled stress.

Despite derivatives’ weakness, U.S.-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds averaged $5.4 billion in daily trading volume. This activity contradicts narratives suggesting institutional demand vanished. Instead, it implied that longer-term allocators continued participating even as leveraged traders reduced exposure.

The immediate Bitcoin price prediction focus centers on whether the price can defend the $60,000 zone without testing deeper structural levels. If macro data stabilizes and funding metrics normalize, recovery attempts may gain traction. However, sustained options hedging and muted leverage demand would keep downside risk active into the next Federal Reserve policy window.