Democrats with the best chances in 2028 are probably not who you think: experts

President Donald Trump and the Republicans are so unpopular, a political scientist was able to break down a long litany of Democrats eager to run in the 2028 election — some of whom, they added, have a realistic chance of winning.

After describing Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear as “too dull” and insufficiently “exciting, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker was then described as “potentially the candidate who could win a lot of Black support but also reach out to a lot of white voters,” at least based on what Seth Masket, a professor at the University of Denver in political science, and Mark Schmitt, the director of the Political Reform Program at New America, told The New Republic’s Perry Bacon in a podcast episode dropped on Sunday. Booker was also described as “one of those politicians who goes anywhere and talks to anybody, in the way that Mamdani is. And I think there’s just real value in that right now—not parsing out micro-targeting, but just getting in there and showing up in an unfriendly audience and listening. I feel like he’s got a little of that gift. Might help.”

The three commentators offered even greater praise of Pete Buttigieg, the former South Bend, Ind. mayor who went on to serve as President Joe Biden’s Secretary of Transportation.

“He’s clearly just the most—he brings to mind pictures of—just—strengths: he’s just like Obama in terms of ability to articulate a viewpoint and get people going,” Schmitt said. “And he has real credentials now, which—mayor of South Bend was not. And I think he’s super impressive,” despite possible weaknesses such as working for the management consultant firm McKinsey and encountering prejudice as a homosexual.

They also described Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego as a candidate who could run on his ability to win a swing state and based on his support within the Latino community; his colleague, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, could similarly run based on his ability to win that swing state and being “martyred” by Trump targeting him in politically-motivated prosecutions. By contrast, the three pundits were skeptical of former Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances.

“I was a little surprised when I saw how well she does in polls, but really shouldn’t be, because that’s just like the classic—I remember when I was a kid, every year Ted Kennedy would be at the very top of the polls, Al Gore for a while, people like that,” Schmitt said. “I like her a lot. I thought she ran about as good a campaign as she could. But I just don’t think the Democratic Party’s going to have confidence in her, even giving—even understanding—how much she was screwed by Joe Biden.”

The pundits also handicapped potential candidates like California Rep. Ro Khanna, New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. The three also paid close attention to California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is widely regarded as a frontrunner in the race.

“Gavin Newsom—I’ve seen this among some people on the left, that he rubs them the wrong way,” Masket said. “But also he’s been, I think, a success in California. Importantly, a lot of Democrats have talked pretty harsh stuff about Donald Trump over the last year and a half. Gavin Newsom is one of the few who can actually claim to have achieved something, right?”

He added, “He actually pushed back on redistricting. He engineered a redistricting in California to counter what Trump pushed for in Texas and essentially neutralized that. And I think that shows, okay, he’s someone—even in a party that is not in the majority nationwide—who is capable of doing some real actions and changing national politics to a good degree. And I think he deserves some credit for that.”

In September, Democratic strategist James Carville argued that Republicans have made it easier for Democrats to want to run in 2028 because of their own unpopular policies.

“You’re gonna win the presidency in 2028 and it’s a pretty good chance you control both the House and Senate,” Carville said at the time, arguing about Republicans that “every time they get into power, they try to cut taxes for rich people and cut healthcare access to middle class people. They’ve done what you thought they were going to do… They can call that bill anything they want, it was still the most negatively viewed piece of domestic legislation in this century I think.”

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