Prediction markets get CFTC relief as legal battles widen

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s staff issued no-action relief for fully collateralized event contracts. 

The move covers certain swap data reporting and recordkeeping duties tied to contracts listed by designated contract markets and cleared by derivatives clearing organizations.

The relief means staff will not recommend enforcement against DCMs, DCOs or participants for failing to meet selected swap reporting rules, as long as they follow the terms in the staff letter. The CFTC said the approach responds to many requests from firms listing and clearing event contracts.

Moreover, the new letter also creates a cleaner path for future applicants. Entities that want to list or clear similar contracts can seek the same no-action position, and the CFTC can add them to an appendix rather than issue another full letter each time.

Staff said the position also covers earlier beneficiaries of similar no-action letters. The letter says this approach should give similar treatment to current and future market participants while the agency considers broader rulemaking for event contract reporting.

Prediction market oversight remains contested

The relief comes as prediction markets face state-level legal fights. Earlier coverage from crypto.news reported that the CFTC backed Kalshi in an Ohio appeal, arguing that state officials treated federally regulated event contracts too narrowly as sports gambling.

In addition, CFTC has also challenged state actions in Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New York and Wisconsin. Court protection in Arizona supported federal oversight of CFTC-regulated prediction markets while cases continue.

Market growth adds pressure for clear rules

The timing matters because prediction markets are growing quickly. Separate market coverage reported that Kalshi reached a $22 billion valuation after a $1 billion Series F round, while annualized trading volume on the platform rose from $52 billion to $178 billion in six months.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said “event contracts could become a trillion-dollar market.” That claim remains forward-looking, but it shows why regulators, exchanges and state officials are paying closer attention to reporting, supervision and legal boundaries.

The CFTC’s latest step does not decide every dispute over event contracts. It focuses on how certain fully collateralized contracts are reported and recorded. Still, it gives DCMs, DCOs and participants a more uniform process as the agency works on broader rules.

For crypto-linked prediction markets, the letter adds another federal signal. Platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase and Crypto.com remain part of a wider debate over whether these products are financial contracts, betting products, or both under different legal frameworks.