Trading Moments: BTC has a CME gap above 70,000; Trump's ultimatum is less than 24 hours away.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

The US-Iran conflict entered its fourth week, with Trump issuing a 48-hour ultimatum on Sunday (Beijing time), demanding that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz or he would destroy its power generation facilities. Based on the posting time, the final deadline was 7:44 AM Beijing time on Tuesday. Faced with this maximum pressure, Iran hardlined, outlining six ceasefire conditions and threatening to completely close the strait if attacked, while simultaneously targeting all US and Israeli energy and information infrastructure in the Middle East.

Actual oil flow in the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted by 97% to a mere 600,000 barrels per day. Goldman Sachs' commodities team has warned that the current supply gap of 17.6 million barrels per day is 18 times the peak of the Russian supply disruption in 2022. If the blockade continues, oil prices are very likely to break through the historical high of 2008.

Asian stock markets were the first to suffer a bloodbath. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 3%. Asian stock markets generally plummeted, with the Nikkei 225 index falling more than 5% to below 51,000 points at one point, and the South Korean KOSPI index plunging 6% to around 5,400, with the Korean won falling to its lowest level against the US dollar since 2009.

Gold fell to around $4,300 today, erasing all gains this year and retreating more than 20% from its January record high. In response to the precious metals plunge, Natixis analyst Bernard Dahdah warned that if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East damage energy infrastructure and force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, gold prices could fall further to $4,000 per ounce. Meanwhile, Ole Hansen, head of strategy at Saxo Bank, believes that gold bulls need to experience a period of "heartbreak" and market consolidation before market enthusiasm can be reignited.

It is worth noting that Zijin Mining, China's largest gold producer, announced that through its wholly-owned subsidiary Zijin Gold, it will acquire and subscribe for shares of Chifeng Gold at a premium, investing over RMB 18.258 billion to obtain a 25.85% stake and absolute control. With the 14-day RSI falling below the oversold zone of 30, both Duan Endian, a researcher at Dayou Futures, and Kyle Rodda, an analyst at Capital.com, are betting on a short-term technical rebound, believing that the current geopolitical safe-haven base remains solid and downside is limited. Furthermore, large speculators such as hedge funds have bucked the trend and pushed their net long positions in gold to a seven-week high.

Bitcoin price

Bitcoin, gripped by panic over Trump's 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, gave back all its previous gains over the weekend, nearly falling below its monthly opening price of $66,973. Notably, CME futures have a gap around $70,100, and analysts generally believe that if a rebound to around $70,000 is rejected, Bitcoin will continue to fall. It's also worth noting that the Bitcoin mining industry is in dire straits, with the current cost of producing a single Bitcoin rising to $88,000, far exceeding the current market price of $68,500. Miners are losing approximately $19,500 for every block they mine.

Bearish view

Core logic: Increased macroeconomic pressures and the positive correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks indicate systemic risks. Technical indicators show repeated rallies followed by pullbacks, confirming a downward trend. A break below key support will target the $50,000 range.

• Tony Severino: The positive correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is a danger sign. Historically, this phenomenon has often foreshadowed a stock market crash and dragged Bitcoin into a deep abyss, with a potential drop of up to 50% (targeting approximately $34,350).

• KillaXBT: The weekly close was extremely ugly, and the bulls have been completely destroyed. If the rebound to 70K is rejected, it will confirm a strong bearish trend on lower timeframes. Once the key support at 64.7K is breached, the price will inevitably fall below 60K.

• Ted Pillows: Bitcoin continues to form lower highs and lower lows, and it's only a matter of time before it crashes to the $50,000 level.

• Rekt Capital: Bitcoin is retesting the 200-week EMA, and the old all-time highs of 2021 and 2024 are now turning into new resistance levels. A monthly close below these levels sets the stage for a bearish pullback.

• Peak: The current price structure shows a clear bearish pattern, and a drop to the 50K area is no longer a pipe dream.

bullish view

Core logic: Extreme geopolitical panic often marks historical bottoms for Bitcoin. With low-leverage long positions being liquidated, the short-selling liquidity above has become a price magnet, potentially leading to a short squeeze rebound in the short term.

• KillaXBT: Geopolitical crises and market capitulation are precisely the times when Bitcoin shines. 90% of people will panic and sell, but the smart 10% will buy during conflicts. The current macroeconomic panic presents an excellent opportunity for Bitcoin to bottom out.

• Sykodelic: The current price action is remarkably similar to the 2022 bottom. Despite extremely pessimistic market sentiment, underlying indicators such as funding rates and premiums are strong, and the market often stages an unexpected reversal when most people are bearish.

• LP: The long liquidation cluster below has been gradually cleared, while a large amount of short liquidation is accumulating above 72K to 77K. Before testing 60K, the price is very likely to move towards the upper magnet first, wiping out these short positions.

• SuperBro: Bitcoin's move to 67.3K has cleared most of the long leverage, and liquidity is now concentrated at the top. Coupled with the gap above the CME, the market is poised for a massive upward short squeeze this week.

• CrediBULL Crypto: Currently forming a bottom within a large consolidation zone of 50K-70K. 72K-75K is a key decision zone, and a short-term easing rebound is the most logical outcome.

• Anthony Scaramucci (Skybridge Capital): The current bear market is caused by long-term holders selling off at the psychological level of $100,000. The four-year cycle theory is still valid, and a new bull market is expected to restart in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Market Dynamics

Over the weekend, the stablecoin protocol Resolv was exploited by attackers due to an off-chain permission vulnerability. Attackers illegally minted 80 million USR tokens with only 200,000 USDC, then quickly sold them for Ethereum, causing the price of USR to plummet by 88%. Resolv has since destroyed 9 million of the illicit tokens and suspended the contract, confirming an actual loss of approximately $500,000. The company plans to allow whitelisted users to redeem their pre-incident USR starting March 23.

Furthermore, the MEME token SIREN experienced a surge over the weekend, with $14.91 million in liquidations occurring in the past 24 hours. On-chain analyst Yu Jin revealed that the SIREN token exhibits extremely severe market manipulation. This manipulator controls a staggering 88.5% of the tokens (worth $1.44 billion), and 52 of the top 54 holding addresses belong to this manipulator. Through spot market manipulation combined with futures trading manipulation, the token's price was artificially inflated 30 times in just one and a half months. Currently, this manipulator is suspected of being linked to DWF Labs.

Key data (as of 13:00 HKT on March 23)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

• Bitcoin ETF: Net inflows of $95.18 million last week, marking the fourth consecutive week of net inflows.

• Ethereum ETF: Net outflow of $59.94 million last week

  XRP ETF: Net inflow of $640,000 last week

  SOL ETF: Net inflow of $21.1 million last week

• Fear of Greed Index: 11 (Extreme Fear)

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: TRX, XRP, BTC, ETH, BARD

• Sector Performance: The crypto market saw widespread declines, with only the AI ​​and Meme sectors rising.

24-hour liquidation A total of 135,019 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $252 million, including $78.56 million in BTC liquidations, $50.25 million in ETH liquidations, and $14.91 million in SIREN liquidations.

Today's Outlook

• Backpack will be performing at TGE on March 23.

• Binance will launch PAYPUSDT U-margined perpetual contracts on March 23.

• Polymarket will announce major news on March 23.

• Cosmos Ecosystem Project Neutron Opens dNTRN Redemption

• Nillion: nilChain will cease operation on March 23. Users need to migrate their NIL tokens to Ethereum in time.

• Bloomberg analysts: The SEC may process Morgan Stanley's BTC ETF application as early as March 23.

• The G7 foreign ministers will meet in Paris on March 24-25 to discuss ending the war with Iran.

• SOON will unlock approximately 21.88 million tokens, worth approximately $2.8 million, on March 23.

• Nillion will unlock approximately 114.4 million tokens, worth about $5.3 million, on March 24.

• SOSO will unlock approximately 13.33 million tokens, worth about $5.4 million, on March 24.

• MON will unlock approximately 170 million tokens, worth about $3.6 million, on March 24.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Siren up 161%, River up 11.2%, MemeCore up 8.1%, Kite up 6.6%, and Monero up 4.4%.

Hot News

• This Week's Preview | Joint Crypto Regulatory Guidance from the US SEC and CFTC Takes Effect; Polymarket Announces Major News, Community Speculation Revolves Around Fundraising or Cryptocurrency Issuance

• H, XPL, JUP and other tokens will see large-scale unlocking, with H unlocking value estimated at approximately $10.2 million.

• The US CFTC has refined its rules for the crypto collateral pilot program: BTC/ETH capital adequacy ratio 20%.

• Resolv Labs: 9 million illegally minted USR tokens have been destroyed. Do not trade related tokens during the restoration period.

• Analysts: SIREN's tokens are controlled by a large player, with DWF Labs possibly being the main controller.

• Sky Union opened a new long position in gold with 20x leverage and gradually closed its short position in S&P 500.

• After Huang Licheng was completely liquidated again, he opened new long positions in ETH, and his losses have exceeded $30.35 million.

• Boyaa Interactive plans to spend no more than $70 million to acquire cryptocurrency.

• WeChat launches official lobster plugin