'GOP senators are running scared' as data guru spots startling evidence in Texas

CNN's Harry Enten found evidence to suggest Democrats have a real shot at picking up a Senate seat in deep-red Texas.

President Donald Trump announced his endorsement Tuesday of state attorney general Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in a May 26 runoff election, and Enten told "CNN News Central" that Republicans were right to question the move.

"Simply put, they're looking at the numbers, they are looking at the numbers and the idea that Democrats can't win in Texas – I want to put that to rest," Enten said. "They could very well do it, James Talarico could very well win in Texas, and I want to use a comparison point with 2018, because there was all this talk about Beto O'Rourke, right? Oh, could he beat Ted Cruz, he could beat Ted Cruz. The numbers at this point in that campaign, simply put, did not support that conclusion. But the numbers at this point absolutely support the conclusion that James Talarico can win."

At this point in the 2018 election, Cruz was ahead of O'Rourke by seven points, Enten said, but the Talarico leads Paxton in a head-to-head matchup by four points in the polling average.

"James Talarico is polling better than any Democrat in at least 24 years," Enten said. "You have to go all the way back to 2002 to find a Democrat even polling anywhere close to where Talarico is polling right now. Texas Democrats have dreamt about turning it blue. This time the numbers actually support the idea that they may actually be able to do it."

Paxton may be uniquely positioned to lose with his past impeachment for alleged bribery, dereliction of duty and abuse of the public trust, and he's been indicted on charges of felony securities fraud and accused of adultery by his wife of 38 years.

"The idea that Ted Cruz was not that popular, that's a falsehood," Enten said. "That is, simply put, a falsehood. You go back, again, just look at these differences right here, okay? Texas GOP candidate net favorability, Ted Cruz's net favorability was actually plus-seven points in my average polls. Look what Ken Paxton is, the complete inverse of that. He's seven points underwater, so look, again, you just look at the numbers."

"In 2018 Democrats had this dream of turning Texas, the numbers didn't support it in large part because Ted Cruz was actually decently popular, but Ken Paxton is anything but," Enten added. "In poll after poll after poll, he is underwater. No wonder Republican senators are running scared, especially after that Trump endorsement of Paxton yesterday."

Another factor working against Republicans is that Trump's popularity is sagging everywhere, including in Texas.

"Back in May 2018, Trump's net popularity in Texas, he was at plus-four points, he was above water," Enten said. "Again, we're looking at the inverse of that. Trump is considerably less popular in Texas, which of course matches what we're seeing nationally, which is that Donald Trump is less popular now than he was at this point in term one. You put it all together, you look at the general election polls, you look at the popularity of the potential Republican candidates they'll be running for Texas Senate."

"You look at Donald Trump's popularity, as well, and you go, okay, Texas is absolutely in play," he added. "Does that mean that Democrats will finally win their first Senate race since 1988 and Lloyd Bentsen? I'm not saying that, but it is a real possibility."

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