Bitcoin Waits on US-Iran Peace Talks Resolution: Next Big Move Loading?

Bitcoin is unable to get decent upside traction, while by the same token a sizable dip has been avoided up to now. It seems that the Bitcoin bulls and bears are waiting on the confirmation or failure of a US-Iran peace deal. Expect Bitcoin to rise or fall significantly depending on the deal resolution.

Another rejection amid lower lows

Source: TradingView

In the short-term time frame it can be seen that the bulls struggled to get back into the descending channel. A brief climb back inside was rejected in fairly quick order. Getting back inside the channel is still the next checkbox to be ticked off by the bulls, but it rather looks as though the $BTC price may be rejected and come back to the $76K support level.

All the while it must be noted that lower highs are continuing to be made. Could a lower low below that $76K horizontal support spark another sizeable tumble to the downside?

Beautifully matching Fibonacci levels with price action

Source: TradingView

Zooming out into the daily time frame, the Fibonacci levels are drawn from the beginning of the last rally at the bottom of the bear flag up to the local top. It must be noted just how beautifully the levels line up with the price action. 

The probability is that the bearish leg downwards has now begun. So far the price has been down to the 0.382 Fibonacci level. If it was only going to come down this far before heading to the upside again it would be very bullish. 

However, it is perhaps more likely that the $BTC price is rejected from the bottom of the small bull flag or the $78K resistance, and it carries on down. The 0.5, 0.618, or 0.786 Fibonaccis are the levels that a proper retracement would be expected to hit. Of these, the 0.786 is the deepest retracement, and the one that lines up with the bottom of the bear flag, although this could be the 0.618 depending on how long it might take for the price to potentially get down there.

A crash down to the 0.618 Fibonacci at $58K?

Source: TradingView

We draw the Fibonacci levels again, this time in the weekly time frame. They are taken from the very bottom of the last bear market, to the top of this bull market. It can be noted that the $60,000 low almost came down to the 0.618 golden Fibonacci level. If there is a crash in the $BTC price from its current position, it could come all the way down to tag the 0.618 Fibonacci. This move could then retest and confirm the bear market trendline and perhaps end up holding above the 200-week SMA with a potential double bottom underneath from which the new bull market could spring. 

Finally, and for the sake of the ultra bears, it has to be acknowledged that the 0.786 Fibonacci could also be a potential bottom. This matches up with the often-seen $40K predictions across social media, and also speculated upon on this platform. That said, would the $BTC price be likely to fall back through the bear market trendline, especially after spending so much time above it?

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.