Trump 'does not have the votes' to replace Alito, Thomas on Supreme Court: report

If Democrats manage to flip the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms — or at least reduce the size of the GOP's small Senate majority — President Donald Trump will have a harder time getting his nominees confirmed in 2027. And that includes U.S. Supreme Court nominees should any seats become available. Some MAGA Republicans are arguing that Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas should retire in 2026, giving Trump a chance to nominate two justices even if Democrats regain control of the Senate. But according to Newsweek, Trump may not have the votes — even with the GOP's small Senate majority.

Reporter Jesus Mesa, in Newsweek, explains, "President Donald Trump has spent recent weeks on what aides have called a 'revenge tour' against Republican senators who have opposed him. The strategy involves endorsing challengers to incumbents who voted against him and pushing MAGA-aligned candidates in key races ahead of this year's midterm elections. If U.S. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito or Justice Clarence Thomas retires before the end of the year, Trump would need to nominate a replacement for Senate confirmation. According to political analysts consulted by Newsweek, the president does not have the votes for confirmation."

Mesa reporters that Trump's U.S. Senate endorsements — including an endorsement of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in Texas' GOP U.S. Senate primary — "have created tensions with some Republican senators whose votes would be crucial in any Supreme Court confirmation."

"Sen. Susan Collins of Maine is running for reelection this year in a state that has trended Democratic," Mesa notes. "Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska defeated a Trump-backed primary challenger in 2022. Both have expressed concerns about supporting conservative Supreme Court nominees in the past. Trump's endorsements have directly affected three other Republicans critical to Supreme Court confirmations…. Cornyn until recently chaired the Senate Judiciary Committee, the panel that vets Supreme Court nominees before a full Senate vote…. Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina announced, in 2025, that he would not seek reelection in 2026."

Mesa adds, "With no future campaign to protect, Tillis voted against Trump on Iran war powers and opposed several administration judicial nominees. Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana lost his primary on May 16 to a Trump-backed opponent."

Jim Kessler of the centrist think tank Third Way believes that Trump, by alienating Senate Republicans, is making it harder to get nominees confirmed.

Kessler told Newsweek, "Revenge is a two-way street. All the politicians that he's gone after are either finished with their career or they hope to have a second start by being someone who took Trump on…. People like Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins were already gonna be a 'no' on any Supreme Court justice because Collins is up for reelection and Murkowski will be up soon. And then, you've got Thom Tillis as well. So, you know, I don't think the votes are there for that."

GOP strategist Mike Madrid told Newsweek, "A year ago, nobody ever believed that the Democrats would be within striking distance of getting a majority in the Senate. And now it's, you know, it's a coin toss. It's as likely as that it's not. That jeopardizes the entire Trump agenda. And of course, (the) Supreme Court…. becomes a big part of that consideration."

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