Coinbase builds prediction-market platform with Kalshi, leaked images show

Coinbase appears to be developing a prediction-markets platform in partnership with Kalshi, according to leaked interface screenshots shared online by a tech researcher. The images suggest a Coinbase-branded product offering markets on politics, economics, sports, and technology, with outcomes settled in US dollars or USDC.

On Tuesday, November 18, Jane Manchun Wong, a tech researcher and blogger well known for exposing upcoming features on key tech websites to the public, shared a tweet. 

In this post, Wong pointed out that Coinbase is forming the platform. To confirm that this is not a rumour, the tech researcher posted several screenshots that appear to display the new platform.

Wong hints that Coinbase collaborated with Kalshi to develop a prediction market

Regarding the screenshots Wong shared, one implied that the prediction market will be made available by Coinbase Financial Markets (CFM), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of Coinbase Global, Inc., registered as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) with the National Futures Association (NFA).  To successfully offer this prediction market, the screenshot highlighted that CFM will collaborate with Kalshi’s prediction market.

Other screenshots displayed a standard prediction market interface presenting Coinbase’s logo, an FAQ section, and a branded guide explaining the service. 

Notably, Coinbase had earlier hinted at this project. According to reports dated July of this year, the crypto exchange informed a reporter during an interview that it plans to introduce prediction markets as part of its broader goal to become an exchange that provides various services. 

After this interview, Coinbase collaborated with Kalshi, acting as the guardian for Kalshi’s event contracts based on USDC on November 13. The crypto exchange’s move drew the attention of reporters who sought to question Coinbase for more information about the project.

However, when they reached out to Coinbase for comments, the crypto exchange declined to respond. When they contacted Kalshi, the federally regulated event-contract exchange also declined to reply.

Meanwhile, it is crucial to highlight that Wong is well-known for uncovering hidden features on social media platforms such as Instagram, Facebook, and X. She accomplishes this task by examining a website’s public source code for hints. 

Analysts have also taken an extra step to look into the details of the screenshots that Wong shared. According to their findings, Coinbase may allow USDC or US dollars in its prediction market. These currencies are essential to this initiative, as they will cover expenses and transactions related to events in sports, science, politics, economics, and technology.

The analysts also noted that there are signs that new markets will often be added. This discovery prompted them to conclude that prediction markets have increasingly become popular in the crypto industry this year, with trading volumes on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket significantly surging.

Coinbase’s move sparks stiff competition among rivals

Following Coinbase’s move, sources have revealed that several of the crypto exchange’s rivals in the ecosystem are now making efforts to capitalize on this trend. Some of their efforts noted include joining forces with existing platforms or establishing their own services.

An example of these rivals is Crypto.com. According to reports, the cryptocurrency exchange and platform recently introduced a prediction markets platform that is set to link with Trump Media.

Gemini, another example of these crypto exchanges, has made public its intention to launch its own prediction markets platform as part of an initiative to develop a “super app.” 

These intentions were made clear after they reported filing to become a designated contract market with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which would provide this platform, last week.

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