The Daily: Bitcoin faces ‘late-cycle fragility,’ Strategy establishes new $1.44B USD reserve, Sony Bank plans US stablecoin, and more

The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.

Happy Monday! Bitcoin slid below $86,000 overnight, wiping out roughly $240 billion in crypto market value as a potential rate hike from the Bank of Japan and a Yearn Finance hack pushed traders back into risk-off mode.

In today's newsletter, Bitcoin faces "late-cycle fragility" as whale accumulation slows, Strategy establishes a new $1.44 billion USD reserve, Sony Bank plans to launch a U.S. stablecoin, and more.

Meanwhile, Changpeng Zhao-backed YZiLabs launches a boardroom coup at BNB treasury firm BNC.

P.S. Don't forget to check out The Funding, a biweekly rundown of crypto VC trends. It's a great read — and just like The Daily, it's free to subscribe!

Bitcoin faces 'late-cycle fragility' as whale accumulation slows, retail interest surges

Onchain data shows bitcoin whales have sharply slowed accumulation while sub-1 BTC retail wallets stepped up dip-buying, creating what BRN Head of Research Timothy Misir called a "classic late-cycle pattern that increases short-term fragility."

• Misir said the latest price slide was a liquidity-positioning washout, not a regime shift, but it exposed growing stress beneath the surface.
• At least $1 billion in crypto liquidations hit the market over the past 24 hours as bitcoin plunged back below $86,000, wiping out around $240 billion in total crypto market cap.
• QCP Capital analysts linked the slump to hawkish BOJ signals, weak Chinese PMI data, and Strategy CEO Phong Le's recent comments about potentially selling BTC reserves if equity funding conditions tightened.
• Macro tailwinds, including rising rate-cut odds and the end of U.S. quantitative tightening, have yet to translate into price strength as sentiment turns cautious, the analysts wrote.
• Bitcoin must reclaim the low-$90,000s and see ETF and onchain flows flip positive to stabilize, BRN's Misir said, warning that rallies look suspect until volatility cools.

Strategy purchases another 130 bitcoin for $11.7M as total holdings hit 650,000 BTC; establishes new $1.44B dividend reserve

Strategy purchased another 130 BTC for approximately $11.7 million at an average price of $89,960 per bitcoin between Nov. 17 and Nov. 30 — taking its total holdings to exactly 650,000 BTC ($55 billion).

• The firm also established a new $1.44 billion USD reserve to support the payment of dividends on its preferred stocks and interest on its existing debt.
• "Strategy's current intention is to maintain a USD Reserve in an amount sufficient to fund at least twelve months of dividends, and intends to strengthen the USD Reserve over time," the firm said in a Monday filing.
• The latest acquisitions and USD Reserve were funded using proceeds from at-the-market sales of its Class A common stock, MSTR, selling $1.48 billion in shares during the period.

Sony Bank to launch US stablecoin for games and anime

Sony Bank is planning to launch a USD-pegged stablecoin in 2026, aiming to serve U.S. users of its games and anime ecosystem, sources familiar with the matter told Nikkei.

• The bank is reportedly looking to establish a U.S.-based unit to operate the stablecoin business, partnering with local infrastructure firm Bastion, while also applying for a U.S. banking license.
• Sony targets lower payment friction and fees by routing game, anime, and subscription purchases through the stablecoin instead of credit or debit cards.
• The push aligns Sony's growing U.S. sales with a $291 billion stablecoin market as Japan accelerates its own yen-pegged token initiatives.

Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows hit $3.5 billion in November

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $3.5 billion in net outflows in November — the largest monthly redemptions since February — as institutions locked in profits and rebalanced into year-end, according to analysts.

• BlackRock's IBIT led the month with $2.3 billion in outflows, yet cumulative spot Bitcoin ETF inflows still sit near $57.7 billion, with about 6.6% of Bitcoin's market cap now parked in the funds.
• Meanwhile, spot Ethereum ETFs logged a record $1.4 billion monthly outflow despite ending November with five straight days of net inflows.
• Fresh Solana, XRP, Litecoin, and Hedera ETFs continued to attract modest inflows, but analysts said institutional capital remains anchored in Bitcoin and Ethereum even as issuers gear up for new products like a spot Chainlink ETF.

Kalshi and Polymarket post record $10 billion in combined November volume

Kalshi and Polymarket posted their strongest month ever, with November volumes hitting $5.8 billion and $3.7 billion, respectively, as prediction market activity surged.

• Market share data shows the pair dominate sector-wide flows, rapidly consolidating into a de facto duopoly as liquidity, integrations, and retail adoption accelerate.
• The niche's capital formation has also kept pace with its trading growth, with Kalshi recently doubling its valuation to $11 billion after a $1 billion raise and Polymarket reportedly eyeing fresh funding at a $15 billion valuation.

Next 24 hours

• Eurozone CPI inflation data is due at 5 a.m. ET on Tuesday.
• U.S. FOMC member Michelle Bowman will speak at 10 a.m.
• Ethena is set for a token unlock.

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