Why quantum computing is becoming a real concern for Bitcoin

• Charles Edwards warns Bitcoin could face sharp price pressure if upgrades are delayed.
• Banks are already moving toward post-quantum encryption, increasing Bitcoin’s relative exposure.
• Crypto leaders remain divided on urgency, mitigation strategies, and timelines.

Quantum computing has long hovered on the fringes of crypto risk discussions, often dismissed as a distant or hypothetical challenge. That framing is now being questioned.

New warnings from within the Bitcoin ecosystem suggest the technology may become a practical threat sooner than expected, with implications not just for network security but also for market confidence.

As timelines tighten and views diverge, the debate is shifting from abstract theory to concrete preparedness, raising questions about whether Bitcoin’s current cryptographic foundations are ready for what comes next.

Quantum threat timelines tighten

The core concern around quantum computing lies in its potential ability to break widely used cryptographic systems.

For Bitcoin, this could mean exposing private keys linked to public addresses, allowing attackers to access funds or compromise sensitive data.

Until recently, most discussions placed this risk decades into the future.

That assumption was challenged this week by Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole.

In an X post on Wednesday, Edwards suggested that quantum risk could become critical by 2028.

He argued that if Bitcoin does not become quantum-resistant within that window, the consequences could be severe for both security and price stability.

His comments pointed to a narrower timeline than many in the industry have assumed.

Price risk linked to inaction

Edwards tied the technical challenge directly to market behaviour.

He warned that failure to deploy a solution by 2028 could see Bitcoin trade well below $50,000 and remain under pressure until the issue is resolved.

In his view, the lack of urgency stems from complacency, with meaningful action likely only after a significant market downturn forces the issue.

He has also indicated that any effective quantum patch would need to be rolled out by 2026 to avoid destabilising the network.

Delays beyond that point, he suggested, could trigger a prolonged and deep bear market driven by eroding confidence rather than a single external shock.

Why Bitcoin may be exposed

Sceptics of the quantum threat argue that the technology remains too immature to pose a near-term risk.

They point out that banks, governments, and large institutions would be targeted first, giving Bitcoin ample warning time to adapt.

Edwards disputes this view. He has repeatedly argued that Bitcoin could be an early target precisely because of its design.

Many banks and institutions are already migrating toward post-quantum encryption standards, while Bitcoin continues to rely on existing cryptographic assumptions.

In addition, fraudulent transactions in traditional finance can often be reversed or blocked, whereas Bitcoin transactions are irreversible once confirmed, increasing the potential impact of any breach.

A divided crypto response

Views across the crypto ecosystem remain sharply split on how seriously Bitcoin should treat the quantum threat.

Some participants argue that interim measures already exist to reduce exposure over the next several years, buying time for more comprehensive upgrades to be designed and implemented at the protocol level.

Others dismiss the issue as overstated, maintaining that quantum computing remains too underdeveloped to pose a meaningful risk to Bitcoin’s cryptography.

From this perspective, heightened concern is seen as premature and potentially driven by broader narratives rather than immediate technical realities.

These contrasting positions underline an unresolved tension within the Bitcoin community.

As quantum capabilities progress, the discussion is shifting from whether the threat is real to how quickly Bitcoin needs to adapt to safeguard its long-term security.

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