The post Is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Breaking Down? Analysts Question Old Market Rules appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News For years, crypto investors haveThe post Is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Breaking Down? Analysts Question Old Market Rules appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News For years, crypto investors have

Is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Breaking Down? Analysts Question Old Market Rules

2025/12/18 20:59
4 min read
Bitcoin Price Crash

The post Is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Breaking Down? Analysts Question Old Market Rules appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News

For years, crypto investors have relied on one idea more than almost any other: the Bitcoin four-year cycle. Buy after the crash, wait for the halving, sell into the bull market, repeat. Simple. Predictable. Almost like a cheat code.

Popular crypto analyst Lark Davis recently revisited this idea and raised an uncomfortable question: What if the four-year cycle was never as real as we thought?

Why the Four-Year Cycle Made Sense for So Long

The four-year cycle theory comes from one real event: the Bitcoin halving.

Every four years, Bitcoin’s new supply gets cut in half. Early on, this mattered a lot. Bitcoin started at zero supply, so reducing new coins had a huge effect. Less supply, growing demand, higher prices, the logic was easy to understand.

And for a long time, it seemed to work perfectly. Big rallies followed halvings. Big crashes followed peaks.

The Problem No One Likes to Talk About

Here’s the uncomfortable part.

More than 95% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist has already been mined. What’s left will be released slowly over more than a century. Today, Bitcoin’s supply grows by only about 1% per year, which is actually less than gold.

At this point, cutting that already tiny supply in half doesn’t change much.

So the big question becomes: If the halving barely changes supply anymore, why should it still move price the same way?

What Really Drove Bitcoin’s Big Moves

When you zoom out, Bitcoin’s major highs and lows line up surprisingly well with global liquidity and business cycles, not just halvings.

  • 2017: Economic expansion and easy money
  • 2020–2021: Massive money printing and stimulus
  • 2024: Spot Bitcoin ETFs brought in huge new capital

In fact, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high before the 2024 halving — something that had never happened before. That alone suggests the old rules are changing.

  • Also Read :
  •   Bitcoin Price Today Holds Near $86,600 Amid Thin Liquidity and Market Uncertainty
  •   ,

Bitcoin also shows a strong connection to global money supply and economic activity. When liquidity rises, Bitcoin tends to do well. When it tightens, Bitcoin struggles.

Another strange detail: the most recent Bitcoin all-time high came with almost no excitement. That doesn’t mean the cycle disappeared completely, it means it may be weaker, diluted, and less reliable than before.

Where That Leaves Bitcoin Now

Right now, Bitcoin looks technically weak, and sentiment is low. Attention has shifted to AI, robotics, and tech stocks. At the same time, the macro picture is shifting. Interest rates are coming down. Liquidity is slowly returning. The environment that once pushed Bitcoin higher may be setting up again.

That doesn’t guarantee a rally tomorrow. But it shows the story isn’t over.

Never Miss a Beat in the Crypto World!

Stay ahead with breaking news, expert analysis, and real-time updates on the latest trends in Bitcoin, altcoins, DeFi, NFTs, and more.

bell icon Subscribe to News

FAQs

What is the Bitcoin price prediction for 2025?

Most forecasts expect Bitcoin to stay bullish in 2025, with potential highs around $175K if strong demand, ETF inflows, and adoption continue.

Will Bitcoin hit $1 million by 2030?

While some long-term forecasts are extremely bullish, reaching $1 million by 2030 is speculative. Current credible estimates suggest a potential high around $900,000 by 2030.

Is Bitcoin a good hedge against inflation?

Yes, Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a digital inflation hedge. Its fixed supply contrasts with expanding fiat currencies, attracting investors seeking to preserve purchasing power.

How much will Bitcoin be in 10 years?

Bitcoin could trade significantly higher in 10 years, with some forecasts expecting it to reach several hundred thousand dollars if adoption keeps growing.

Market Opportunity
Moonveil Logo
Moonveil Price(MORE)
$0.0006327
$0.0006327$0.0006327
-3.12%
USD
Moonveil (MORE) Live Price Chart
Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact service@support.mexc.com for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.

You May Also Like

The FDA Is Trying To Make Corporate Free Speech Situational

The FDA Is Trying To Make Corporate Free Speech Situational

The post The FDA Is Trying To Make Corporate Free Speech Situational appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. BENSENVILLE, ILLINOIS – SEPTEMBER 10: Flanked by U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi (rear), and FDA Commissioner Marty Makary (R), Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks to the press outside Midwest Distribution after it was raided by federal agents on September 10, 2025 in Bensenville, Illinois. According to the company, various e-liquids were seized in the raid. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images) Getty Images While running for President in 2008, Barack Obama famously chanted “Yes we can.” Love or hate his political views, Obama’s politics were quite effective. He was asking voters to think big, to envision a much better future. Advertisers no doubt approved. That’s because ads routinely evoke things not as they are, but as they could be. Gyms and exercise equipment companies don’t promote their locations and equipment with flabby, lumbering people, rather their ads show fit, upright, energetic individuals. A look ahead. Restaurants do the same with ads showing happy people enjoying impressively put together plates of food. Conversely, ads meant to convince smokers to quit have not infrequently shown the worst of the worst future downsides of the habit. The nature of advertising comes to mind as FDA commissioner Marty Makary puzzlingly brags that “The Trump Administration Is Taking On Big Pharma” in the New York Times. Makary laments pharmaceutical ads that “are filled with dancing patients, glowing smiles and catch jingles that drown out the fine print.” Not explained is whether Makary would be happier if drug companies placed ads with immobile patients, frowns, and funereal music. Seriously, what does he expect? Does he want drug companies to commit billions to drug development to accompany their achievements with imagery defined by misery? Has Makary stopped to contemplate the myriad shareholders lawsuits drugmakers would face if, upon risking staggering sums meant…
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/18 06:29
👨🏿‍🚀TechCabal Daily – Locked out of Eden

👨🏿‍🚀TechCabal Daily – Locked out of Eden

In today's edition: Eden Life pauses consumer operations || Eskom gets vote to split || Airtel's Smartcash targets Nigeria's mobile market || Cell C is profitable
Share
Techcabal2026/02/16 14:02
USDC Transfer Stuns Market: $1.12 Billion Binance Exodus to Unknown Wallet Sparks Analysis

USDC Transfer Stuns Market: $1.12 Billion Binance Exodus to Unknown Wallet Sparks Analysis

BitcoinWorld USDC Transfer Stuns Market: $1.12 Billion Binance Exodus to Unknown Wallet Sparks Analysis A seismic shift in digital asset liquidity occurred today
Share
bitcoinworld2026/02/16 14:15