ADA Attempts Base As Buyers Defend Range Low

• ADA is attempting to form a base after defending the $0.326 area near the lower Bollinger Band.
• Spot inflows and falling open interest suggest selling pressure is easing, not reversing.
• Price remains below key EMAs, with $0.381 and $0.438 capping recovery attempts.

Cardano price today trades near $0.376 after a modest rebound from December lows, with buyers stepping in around the lower end of the recent range. The move offers short-term relief, but the broader structure remains under pressure as ADA continues to trade well below its major moving averages. The tension sits between improving short-term momentum and a still-dominant higher-timeframe downtrend.

Daily Structure Remains Bearish Despite Bounce

On the daily chart, ADA is still locked in a broader corrective phase that began in October. Price remains below the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs, all of which are sloping lower. The 20-day EMA near $0.381 and the 50-day EMA around $0.438 now form the first resistance band. Above that, the 100-day EMA near $0.526 and the 200-day EMA near $0.610 define the macro ceiling.

The recent rebound developed near the lower Bollinger Band around $0.326, a zone that has historically attracted dip buyers. While that defense matters, it does not change the trend on its own. ADA must reclaim lost averages to shift the narrative from stabilization to recovery.

Spot Flows Show Early Improvement

Spot flow data provides a subtle positive signal. After weeks of persistent outflows, Cardano recorded a $3.08 million net inflow on December 29. That move stands out against the broader pattern of distribution seen throughout the fourth quarter.

Related: Zcash Price Prediction: Zcash Consolidates After Rejection as Traders Brace for Breakout

While a single inflow does not confirm accumulation, it suggests that sellers are losing urgency near current levels. Spot buyers are beginning to absorb supply rather than chase price lower. This aligns with the price stabilization visible on the chart.

For ADA to build a sustainable base, spot inflows need to persist across multiple sessions. Without that follow-through, the bounce risks fading back into the prevailing downtrend.

Derivatives Data Signals Reduced Leverage Risk

Derivatives positioning has cooled. Open interest is down 1.64% to roughly $712 million, even as trading volume rose more than 18%. That divergence points to position cleanup rather than aggressive directional bets.

Liquidation data reinforces that view. Over the past 24 hours, total liquidations remain modest relative to earlier drawdowns, with both longs and shorts being cleared in balanced fashion. The long-to-short ratio sits close to neutral, indicating that leverage is no longer heavily skewed in one direction.

This environment reduces the risk of forced downside cascades. It does not guarantee upside, but it creates space for price to stabilize if spot demand holds.

Short-Term Charts Show Improving Momentum

On the 30-minute chart, ADA has broken above its short-term Supertrend near $0.372 and is holding above an ascending intraday trendline. RSI has recovered into the mid-50s, reflecting improving momentum without entering overbought territory.

Price recently pushed toward $0.385 before pulling back, signaling supply near that level. That zone now acts as immediate resistance. A clean break above it would open room toward $0.400, where sellers previously stepped in aggressively.

These lower-timeframe signals suggest that buyers are active, but conviction remains limited until higher-timeframe resistance levels are reclaimed.

Outlook. Will Cardano Go Up?

ADA is attempting to stabilize after a prolonged decline, but the trend has not yet turned.

• Bullish case: Price holds above $0.360 and breaks $0.381 with rising volume. A close above $0.438 confirms momentum shift and targets $0.480 next.
• Bearish case: Failure to hold $0.360 sends ADA back toward $0.326. A break below that level signals continuation of the broader downtrend.

Related: Shiba Inu Price Prediction: SHIB Stabilizes Near Range Low As Supply Signals Improve