AAVE: Rise or Fall? January 15, 2026 Scenario Analysis

AAVE is standing at a critical crossroads at the $172.44 level. While the overall uptrend continues, short-term bearish signals (MACD negative histogram, close below EMA20) make both scenarios possible. RSI at 50.33 is neutral, volume at $258.72M is stable, but the breakout direction will be decisive. Traders should be prepared for both directions: An upside breakout could trigger a rally, while a downside breakout could deepen the correction.

Current Market Situation

AAVE is trading at $172.44 with a %2.47 drop over the last 24 hours. The daily range is squeezed between $171.84 – $180.37, with volume at a moderate $258.72M level. Although the overall trend is uptrend, the short-term technical picture is mixed: RSI 50.33 in the neutral zone, MACD bearish (negative histogram expanding), price giving a bearish short-term signal below EMA20 ($173.22). Supertrend is in bearish mode and showing $186.32 resistance.

Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis detects 14 strong levels in 1D/3D/1W: 2 supports/3 resistances in 1D, 1 support/4 resistances in 3D, 2 supports/5 resistances predominantly in 1W. Critical supports $165.85 (score 80/100) and $170.58 (68/100); resistances $173.38 (96/100) and $181.21 (70/100). Market news flow is calm, so technical levels will dominate. You can access detailed data from the AAVE Spot Analysis and AAVE Futures Analysis pages.

Scenario 1: Upside Scenario

How Does This Scenario Play Out?

The upside scenario is triggered by the price breaking above the $173.38 resistance (score 96/100) with strong volume. This level coincides with EMA20, and if a daily close occurs here, the short-term bearish momentum reverses. In the next step, momentum builds toward $181.21; if RSI stays sustainably above 50 and the MACD histogram turns positive, the uptrend continuation is confirmed. Supertrend flipping to bullish (above $186.32) provides additional confirmation. The scenario strengthens if supported by a volume increase (%20+), general recovery in the DeFi sector, or a drop in BTC dominance. If 1W resistances (5 levels) are overcome in MTF, it opens the door to a broader rally. In this scenario, invalidation is a daily close below $170.58 – if this level breaks, the upside probability is nullified.

Target Levels

First target $181.21 (medium-term resistance), followed by $186.32 Supertrend level. With strong momentum, $202.66 (score 28/100) becomes the main target – this aligns with 1W uptrend extension and Fibonacci 1.618 level. Risk/reward ratio (R/R), calculated with $170.58 stop-loss, is approximately 1:2.5 (assuming $172.44 entry). Traders can consider long positions on the $173.38 breakout, but always apply their own risk management.

Scenario 2: Downside Scenario

Risk Factors

The downside scenario begins with a close below the $170.58 support (score 68/100) – this is near the last 24h lows, and if accompanied by volume increase, bearish momentum accelerates. MACD negative histogram expands, RSI drops below 50, and price moves away from EMA20, solidifying the short-term bearish trend. Additional trigger: Break below $165.85 (score 80/100), which increases pressure due to excess resistance in MTF (total 12R vs 5S). General market correction (BTC below $90K), decrease in DeFi volume, or unexpected regulatory news heightens risk. If Supertrend remains bearish, $186.32 stays a distant dream. Invalidation: Daily close above $173.38 – if this happens, the downside scenario is invalidated.

Protection Levels

First protection $165.85, then $150.48 (score 44/100) as the main bearish target – this aligns with 1D/3D support extension and %12-15 correction. R/R around 1:2.8 with $173.38 stop-loss ($172.44 short entry). Traders can watch for short opportunities on the $170.58 breakout, keeping stop-losses tight.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Key triggers: For Bull: Close above $173.38 + volume increase + MACD positive crossover; For Bear: Close below $170.58 + RSI <45 + volume spike. Confirmation signals: 4H candle closes, OBV rise (bull) or fall (bear). MTF alignment is critical: 1D breakout should be supported by 3D/1W. With low volatility (ATR < %3), fakeout risk is high – wait. In every scenario, invalidation levels are clear: Below $170.58 for bull, above $173.38 for bear. Make your decision with your own analysis.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

AAVE at a crossroads: Uptrend potential is strong, but short-term pressures create balanced scenarios. Monitoring points: $173.38/$170.58 breakouts, MACD/RSI changes, volume profile. Weekly close (1W) determines direction – focus on Friday. Patience is key in a neutral market; early entries are risky. This analysis is for educational purposes and encourages your own research. Follow AAVE Spot and Futures pages for updates.