HBAR January 19, 2026: Critical Support Test in 7% Sharp Drop and Market Outlook

Hedera Hashgraph’s native token HBAR has fallen sharply by 7.30% in the last 24 hours to the 0.11 dollar level, signaling a clear downtrend on the daily chart. This move is testing the lower boundary of the narrow 0.10-0.12 dollar trading range, while selling pressure backed by 144 million dollars in volume brings critical support zones to the forefront on investors’ radars. The market is raising the question of whether it will bring a potential rebound buy or a deeper correction, with technical confluences set to play a determining role.

Market Outlook and Current Situation

HBAR is trading at the 0.11 dollar level as of January 19, 2026, and the 7.30% loss over the last 24 hours aligns with the general weakness in the altcoin market. A clear downtrend dominance is observed on the daily timeframe, with the price remaining below the EMA20 (0.12 dollars). Although volume has reached 144.16 million dollars, this level remains modest compared to previous periods and confirms the dominance of selling. The 24-hour range is squeezed between 0.10-0.12 dollars, indicating high short-term volatility.

In the broader market context, HBAR’s performance is shaped in Bitcoin’s shadow. Like most altcoins, HBAR draws attention with its institutional adoption potential (thanks to Hedera’s enterprise-focused network structure), but it is under pressure from macro pressures. The accumulated selling momentum in recent weeks triggered a downward breakout without testing the Supertrend resistance around 0.13 dollars. 14 strong levels were identified in multi-timeframe confluences: 2 supports/3 resistances on the daily, 2S/3R on the 3-day, and 2S/4R distribution on the weekly, painting an imbalanced picture. This structure mandates a cautious approach in the short term.

Despite no recent breaking news, network metrics (high TPS capacity and low fees) preserve its long-term value proposition. However, in the current downtrend, speculative buys remain limited, and reviewing the HBAR Spot Analysis could be useful for evaluating detailed entry-exit points.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Support Zones

The strongest support is at the 0.1028 dollar level (score: 72/100), a region reinforced by multi-timeframe confluences. This level sits at the intersection of daily and weekly pivots and has held multiple times in the past. In case of a breakdown, the next target at 0.1078 dollars (score: 62/100) comes into play; it aligns with the Fibonacci retracement 61.8% and is critical for short-term rebound buys. In a deeper drop, the psychological 0.10 dollar threshold should be monitored, as volume increase will be decisive here. These supports are queued for testing in the continuation of the downtrend and could signal a short-term recovery if they hold.

Resistance Barriers

The first short-term resistance is at 0.1089 dollars (score: 62/100), positioned just above and a candidate for a quick test from the current price position. Following that are the 0.1157 dollar (61/100) and 0.1278 dollar (61/100) levels; these are strengthened by EMA20 and Supertrend confluences. The upper resistances on the weekly chart point to the 0.13 dollar band, serving as barriers to overcome in a bullish scenario. Breaking these resistances will require volume confirmation for a downtrend reversal; otherwise, selling pressure may continue. Tracking these levels via HBAR Futures Analysis holds strategic importance for leveraged positions.

Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength

RSI (14) is at 38.38 and showing neutral-bearish momentum as it approaches the oversold region. While this value does not signal oversold conditions, potential for a rebound increases if it drops below 30. The MACD histogram is expanding in the negative zone, confirming a bearish crossover below the signal line and validating downtrend strength. The price remaining below EMA20 (0.12 dollars) in the EMA hierarchy reinforces the short-term bearish bias, while distance from EMA50 and EMA200 indicates long-term weakness.

The Supertrend indicator is in bearish mode and generating a sell signal at the 0.13 dollar resistance. On the multi-timeframe, the weekly Supertrend also being downward strengthens the overall trend power. However, the slight recovery in RSI and volume stability suggest momentum exhaustion signals. These indicators collectively show downtrend dominance persisting while opening a window of opportunity for bottom hunters. Trend strength can shift at levels supported by confluences.

Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook

The risk/reward profile appears more inclined toward bearish targets (0.0710 dollars, score 22) from the current position, but the bullish upside (0.1475 dollars, score 30) offers an attractive R/R ratio above 1:2 despite low probability, calculated from current supports. If the downtrend continues and the 0.1028 support breaks, it could gain momentum toward the 0.07 band; if it holds, a retest signal to 0.1157 could be generated. With high volatility, stop-losses should be positioned below supports.

In a positive scenario, if BTC stabilizes and RSI rises above 50, a trend reversal could come into play; in the negative, dominance increase could crush altcoins. The overall outlook is cautious: short-term selling pressure weighs heavy, but confluences offer bottom opportunities. Investors should position according to their own risk tolerance and closely monitor market dynamics. A balanced approach requires watching both long and short opportunities.

Bitcoin Correlation

As a typical altcoin, HBAR shows high correlation to Bitcoin price action; BTC’s uptrend at the 92.593 dollar level (despite -2.61% daily loss) indirectly affects HBAR. BTC Supertrend being bearish signals caution for altcoins amid rising dominance. BTC supports cluster at 92.396, 90.933, and 89.049 dollars, while HBAR’s current drop was triggered by BTC’s failure to test the 94.151 resistance. If BTC slips below 90.933, HBAR’s 0.10 support could break; conversely, a rise to 94.151-96.154-98.500 resistances would give HBAR breathing room and strengthen the 0.12 band.

HBAR’s dependence on BTC reflects speculative flows despite its enterprise utility. If BTC uptrend continues, HBAR retest potential increases, but dominance pressure could prolong the downtrend. This correlation is critical for portfolio diversification; HBAR trades can be optimized by monitoring BTC levels.