By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin is struggling to hold ground as concerns over the strength of the yen and fiscal instability drove a divergence between crypto and traditional safe-haven assets.

Bitcoin fell 0.8% in 24 hours to sit below $88,000, and ether lost more than 1.6% to just under $2,900. The broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index retreated 1.54%.

The yen, meantime, rallied more than 1.4% against the dollar after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Japan would “take all necessary measures to address speculative and highly abnormal movement.”

While Takaichi didn’t identify the market movements of concern, yields on the country’s 10-year bonds have this month reached a 27-year high before seeing a slight drop.

Traders are also interpreting a recent “rate check” by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York as a possible sign of coordinated action with Japan, a scenario that’s pushing investors off of riskier assets as the yen carry trade unwinds.

Michael Burry, the investor who profited off of the subprime mortgage crisis by shorting the market, that is, betting on a decline, recently pointed to Japanese bond yields closing the gap with global rates, commenting “repatriation pending.”

The suggestion is that nearly $5 trillion of overseas investments, mostly in the U.S., would be pulled back to take advantage of these yields. Capital has, as a result, fled risk assets in expectation of such a move. The Nikkei 225 index dropped 1.8%, while Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures fell.

That capital hasn’t rotated to bitcoin, however, but rather to gold. The precious metal topped $5,000 per ounce for the first time earlier today, and is already at $5,090. Bitcoin’s always-on nature, deep liquidity and instant settlement may be holding it back, according to NYDIG’s global head of research, Greg Cipolaro.

“Under periods of stress and uncertainty, liquidity preference dominates, and this dynamic hurts bitcoin far more than gold,” he wrote in a note shared with CoinDesk.

Blockchain data also suggests internal weakness. CryptoQuant said in a report that older bitcoin holders are starting to sell at a loss for the first time since October 2023.

Traders will be watching this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where interest rates are expected to stay put, though Chair Jerome Powell’s guidance will be key.

Furthermore U.S. government shutdown risks, currently pegged at 79% on Polymarket and near 78% on Kalshi, add another layer of uncertainty ahead of a week that’ll see major tech firms report earnings and share guidance. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Crypto
  • Nothing scheduled.
• Macro
  • Jan. 26, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Durable goods orders MoM for November (Prev. -2.2%)
  • Jan. 26, 10:30 a.m.: U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index for January (Prev. -10.9)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Nothing scheduled.

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Governance votes & calls
  • Maple Finance is voting on extending the 25% protocol revenue allocation to the Syrup Strategic Fund for first-half 2026. Voting ends Jan. 26.
  • Lido is voting to implement a dynamic DVT incentive model that adjusts reward splits based on operating costs, alongside reforming the Rewards Share Committee to support Lido V3 features like stVaults. Voting ends Jan. 26.
• Unlocks
  • Jan. 26: BGB$3.5757 to unlock 10.5% of its circulating supply worth $508.2 million.
• Token Launches
  • Jan. 26: Rainbow (RBNW) airdrop snapshot to be taken.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• No major conferences.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 1.5% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $87,928.03 (24hrs: -0.67%)
• ETH is down 1.5% at $2,897.28 (24hrs: -1.31%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 2.05% at 2,681.29 (24hrs: -1.34%%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 2 bps at 3.05%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0051% (5.5856% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.92% at 97.46
• Gold futures are up 1.42% at $4,983.10
• Silver futures are up 7.15% at $103.26
• Nikkei 225 closed down 1.79% to 52,885.25
• Hang Seng closed unchanged at 26,765.52
• FTSE is unchanged at 10,143.44
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.13% at 5,948.20
• DJIA closed on Friday down 0.58% at 49,098.71
• S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,915.61
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.28% at 23,501.24
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.43% at 33,144.98
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.5% at 3,591.57
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 2.8 bps at 4.211%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.16% at 6,933.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 25,680.50
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.76% at 49,180.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.79% (-0.13%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03294 (1.31%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 951 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $39.17
• Total fees: 1.93 BTC / $169,938
• CME Futures Open Interest: 124,740 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 17.2 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 5.87%

Technical Analysis

• BTC faces stiff resistance after a weekly close below $88,000 and a rejection at the 50-week exponential moving average of $96,700
• Unless it reclaims $88,000, the market will probably transition into a consolidation range between $80,000 and $88,000 as near-term volatility prices in this local uncertainty before a broader breakout attempt.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $216.95 (-2.77%), -2.25% at $212.06 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $71.33 (-0.03%), -2.29% at $69.70
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $31.90 (+3.17%), -2.51% at $31.10
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $35.75 (-2.00%), -0.73% at $35.49
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $10.50 (+2.04%), -2.10% at $10.28
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $17.28 (+1.17%), -1.79% at $16.97
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $18.79 (+3.93%), -1.33% at $18.54
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $13.71 (+3.94%), -2.26% at $13.40
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $49.14 (+4.71%), -1.59% at $48.36
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $14.99 (-4.83%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $163.11 (+1.32%), -2.33% at $159.31
• Strive (ASST): closed at $0.87 (+0.06%), -1.78% at $0.85
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.75 (-0.31%), -2.56% at $9.50
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.00 (+1.01%), -4.50% at $1.91
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.27 (-3.79%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$103.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $56.48 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$41.7 million
• Cumulative net flows: $12.33 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.02 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

As Europe’s Reliance on U.S. Natural Gas Grows, So Does Trump’s Leverage (The New York Times): Tension over Greenland prompted concerns that the Trump administration could turn the U.S. oil and gas industry into a way to pressure Europe.

Dollar Hits Four-Month Low as Gold Tops $5,000 (Bloomberg): The dollar extended its selloff on Monday as speculation swirled that the U.S. could coordinate intervention with Japanese authorities to support the yen. Stocks pulled back, while gold topped $5,000 an ounce.

India to slash tariffs on cars to 40% in trade deal with EU, sources say (Reuters): India plans to slash tariffs on cars imported from the European Union to 40% from as high as 110%, in the biggest opening yet of the country's market as the two sides close in on a free trade pact that could come as early as Tuesday.