The post Ethereum Price Prediction for February 2026: Key Levels & Risks appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Ethereum price is entering February 2026 at a The post Ethereum Price Prediction for February 2026: Key Levels & Risks appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Ethereum price is entering February 2026 at a

Ethereum Price Prediction for February 2026: Key Levels & Risks

The Ethereum price is entering February 2026 at a critical crossroads. After losing nearly 7% in January, ETH is closing the month in clear contrast to its historical trend. January’s median return stands near +32%, yet this year has moved in the opposite direction. February, meanwhile, has delivered median gains of around +15% since 2016.

The last time Ethereum entered February in a similar position was in 2025. That year, weakness extended into a 32%-37% monthly decline. Whether 2026 follows that path or breaks away from it will depend on how the technical structure, on-chain data, and institutional flows interact in the coming weeks.

Ethereum’s February History and a Falling Wedge Set Up a High-Stakes Test

Looking at long-term data helps frame expectations. Since 2016, Ethereum has posted a median February return of about +15%. It is not the strongest month, but it has delivered more gains than losses.

January tells a different story this year.

Instead of following its +32% median gain, ETH is closing January 2026 down roughly 7%. That puts it closer to 2025’s pattern, when early weakness carried into a February decline.

Ethereum History: CryptoRank

Sponsored

Sponsored

So Ethereum enters February at a crossroads.

However, not all analysts believe seasonality should be treated as a reliable guide.

The analytics team at B2BINPAY, an all-in-one crypto ecosystem for businesses, cautions against relying too heavily on historical patterns.

They also added that ETH currently lacks immediate growth catalysts

They also point to last year as evidence:

That skepticism is reflected in the current chart structure.

On the two-day timeframe, the ETH price remains inside a falling wedge. A falling wedge forms when the price makes lower highs and lower lows. It often signals weakening selling pressure and the potential for reversal.

In this case, the wedge is wide and volatile. A confirmed breakout would project a move of roughly 60%. That is a maximum target, not a forecast.

Momentum adds another layer.

Between December 17 and January 29, Ethereum is about to print lower lows on price. During the same period, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) held near 37. RSI measures whether buyers or sellers control momentum.

Price Structure: TradingView

When the price falls, but the RSI does not, selling pressure is weakening. This creates early bullish divergence.

If the next ETH price candle holds above $2,690 and RSI stabilizes, reversal odds improve as a lower low on price is confirmed. But confirmation is still missing. That makes on-chain data critical.

Sponsored

Sponsored

On-Chain Data Supports a Rebound, but Conviction Is Fading

On-chain metrics provide the first major validation test. One key indicator is Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL). NUPL measures paper profits/losses.

Ethereum’s NUPL currently sits near 0.19, placing it in the “hope–fear” zone.

This level is important historically. In June 2025, NUPL fell near 0.17, while ETH traded around $2,200. Over the following month, the price surged toward $4,800, a gain of more than 110%.

So NUPL aligns with what the wedge and RSI are suggesting. Selling pressure is easing. Unrealized profits are shrinking. That creates room for upside.

But the signal is incomplete. True market bottoms usually occur when NUPL turns negative. In April 2025, it dropped near −0.22, marking full capitulation.

NUPL Still High: Glassnode

Today’s reading remains far above that, which means more selling room remains. This suggests relief rallies, not cycle resets.

HODLer behavior reinforces this mixed picture. The Hodler Net Position Change metric tracks whether long-term investors are accumulating or distributing. Throughout January, this metric stayed positive.

Accumulation peaked on January 18 at roughly 338,700 ETH. By January 29, it had dropped to around 151,600 ETH. That represents a decline of more than 55%. So holders are still buying, but with far less conviction.

Long-Term Investors Buying Less Strongly: Glassnode

This fits with how B2BINPAY analysts describe the broader market environment.

Taken together, NUPL and holder activity validate the rebound case, but show weakening conviction.

Sponsored

Sponsored

That shifts attention to the next deciding group: big money!

Whales Are Accumulating, but ETFs Are Still Missing

Large holders are sending a stronger signal than institutional investors.

Data on supply held by whales shows steady January accumulation. At the start of the month, whales controlled about 101.18 million ETH. By month-end, that figure had risen to roughly 105.16 million ETH.

That is an increase of nearly 4 million ETH. This reflects active buying during weakness.

ETH Whales: Santiment

While price declined from mid-January highs, large wallets continued adding exposure. That supports the ETH rebound case suggested by NUPL and the wedge.

This contrasts sharply with 2025.

At the end of January 2025, whale holdings stood near 105.22 million ETH. By the end of February, that figure had fallen to around 101.96 million ETH. That distribution coincided with Ethereum’s 32% February collapse. Last year, whales sold. This year, they are accumulating.

ETH Whales Were Selling Last Year: Santiment

However, inconsistent ETF flows tell a more cautious story. Several strong inflow days were followed by major outflows. Late January saw withdrawals exceeding 70,000 ETH equivalents.

ETF Flows: Glassnode

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

This means ETFs have not joined the rebound trade decisively.

Sponsored

Sponsored

John Murillo, Chief Business Officer of B2BROKER, a global fintech solutions provider for financial institutions, argues that January’s ETF behavior reflects tactical positioning rather than outright exit.

In Murillo’s view:

Murillo warns that if this continues, derivatives may take control of price discovery, a key risk to price:

For now, whales are optimistic. Institutions remain cautious. That combination supports rebounds, but limits sustainability.

Ethereum Price Levels That Will Decide February 2026

NUPL from earlier shows this is not a confirmed bottom. Downside risk remains.

The first critical ETH price support sits near $2,690.

This aligns with the recent two-day support and prior consolidation. A clean close below $2,690 would signal sellers regaining control. That opens downside toward $2,120.

On the upside, Ethereum must reclaim $3,000 first. This is both a psychological and structural barrier. Price has repeatedly failed here since December.

Holding above $3,000 would signal confidence returning.

Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingView

Next resistance stands near $3,340. This level has capped rallies since December 9. A breakout would mark a meaningful shift in the ETH price structure.

Above that, $3,520 becomes critical. A sustained break and hold above $3,520 would confirm momentum recovery and open upside toward $4,030.

Source: https://beincrypto.com/ethereum-price-prediction-february-2026/

Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact service@support.mexc.com for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.

You May Also Like

Polygon Tops RWA Rankings With $1.1B in Tokenized Assets

Polygon Tops RWA Rankings With $1.1B in Tokenized Assets

The post Polygon Tops RWA Rankings With $1.1B in Tokenized Assets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Notes A new report from Dune and RWA.xyz highlights Polygon’s role in the growing RWA sector. Polygon PoS currently holds $1.13 billion in RWA Total Value Locked (TVL) across 269 assets. The network holds a 62% market share of tokenized global bonds, driven by European money market funds. The Polygon POL $0.25 24h volatility: 1.4% Market cap: $2.64 B Vol. 24h: $106.17 M network is securing a significant position in the rapidly growing tokenization space, now holding over $1.13 billion in total value locked (TVL) from Real World Assets (RWAs). This development comes as the network continues to evolve, recently deploying its major “Rio” upgrade on the Amoy testnet to enhance future scaling capabilities. This information comes from a new joint report on the state of the RWA market published on Sept. 17 by blockchain analytics firm Dune and data platform RWA.xyz. The focus on RWAs is intensifying across the industry, coinciding with events like the ongoing Real-World Asset Summit in New York. Sandeep Nailwal, CEO of the Polygon Foundation, highlighted the findings via a post on X, noting that the TVL is spread across 269 assets and 2,900 holders on the Polygon PoS chain. The Dune and https://t.co/W6WSFlHoQF report on RWA is out and it shows that RWA is happening on Polygon. Here are a few highlights: – Leading in Global Bonds: Polygon holds 62% share of tokenized global bonds (driven by Spiko’s euro MMF and Cashlink euro issues) – Spiko U.S.… — Sandeep | CEO, Polygon Foundation (※,※) (@sandeepnailwal) September 17, 2025 Key Trends From the 2025 RWA Report The joint publication, titled “RWA REPORT 2025,” offers a comprehensive look into the tokenized asset landscape, which it states has grown 224% since the start of 2024. The report identifies several key trends driving this expansion. According to…
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/18 00:40
Adam Wainwright Takes The Mound Again Honor Darryl Kile

Adam Wainwright Takes The Mound Again Honor Darryl Kile

The post Adam Wainwright Takes The Mound Again Honor Darryl Kile appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Adam Wainwright of the St. Louis Cardinals in the dugout during the second inning against the Miami Marlins at Busch Stadium on July 18, 2023 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images) Getty Images St. Louis Cardinals lifer Adam Wainwright is a pretty easygoing guy, and not unlikely to talk with you about baseball traditions and barbecue, or even share a joke. That personality came out last week during our Zoom call when I mentioned for the first time that I’m a Chicago Cubs fan. He responded to the mention of my fandom, “So far, I don’t think this interview is going very well.” Yet, Wainwright will return to Busch Stadium on September 19 on a more serious note, this time to honor another former Cardinal and friend, the late Darryl Kile. Wainwright will take the mound not as a starting pitcher, but to throw out the game’s ceremonial first pitch. Joining him on the mound will be Kile’s daughter, Sierra, as the two help launch a new program called Playing with Heart. “Darryl’s passing was a reminder that heart disease doesn’t discriminate, even against elite athletes in peak physical shape,” Wainwright said. “This program is about helping people recognize the risks, take action, and hopefully save lives.” Wainwright, who played for the St. Louis Cardinals as a starting pitcher from 2005 to 2023, aims to merge the essence of baseball tradition with a crucial message about heart health. Kile, a beloved pitcher for the Cardinals, tragically passed away in 2002 at the age of 33 as a result of early-onset heart disease. His sudden death shook the baseball world and left a lasting impact on teammates, fans, and especially his family. Now, more than two decades later, Sierra Kile is stepping forward with Wainwright to…
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/18 02:08
US nonfarm payrolls double forecast with 130K jobs added

US nonfarm payrolls double forecast with 130K jobs added

The post US nonfarm payrolls double forecast with 130K jobs added appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. US employers added 130,000 jobs in January, nearly doubling
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2026/02/11 22:04