This Chart Could Explode Soon

Key Insights:

• Dogecoin forms same monthly pattern seen before major rallies in 2017 and 2021 cycles.
• Over half of DOGE supply is now in loss, echoing previous market bottom conditions.
• MACD and RSI show weak momentum; no confirmation yet of a bullish price breakout.

A recent Dogecoin chart from Trader Tardigrade has drawn attention for its resemblance to past market cycles. On a monthly scale, the current setup looks similar to what played out in 2017 and again leading into 2021. In both cases, DOGE went through a long accumulation period marked by a rounded bottom. That pattern eventually led to a sharp breakout.

Now, the same curve appears to be forming again. The chart outlines this movement within a rising wedge, a structure that has previously pointed toward price expansion. Tardigrade mentioned, 

Despite the technical similarities, no breakout has occurred. The chart shows potential, but the price still hasn’t made a move to confirm it.

Supply in Loss Signals Ongoing Pressure

At the same time, on-chain data tells a different part of the story. According to a chart from Glassnode, a large share of DOGE holders are currently in loss. As the price has dropped, more wallets now hold DOGE bought at higher levels. That trend has continued into early 2026.

This isn’t new for Dogecoin. Similar supply loss spikes appeared in previous down markets—late 2018, mid-2020, and again after the 2021 top. In each case, it was followed by price recovery, though the timing wasn’t instant.

Right now, the data shows pain, not strength. It’s a reminder that while historical patterns can point to possibilities, market participants are still absorbing earlier losses.

Short-Term Trend Shows No Reversal Yet

The price of Dogecoin was hovering near $0.112. That’s about a 10% drop in the past week. Intraday movement has also stayed negative, and there’s little buying pressure visible on the chart.

Momentum indicators reflect this as well. RSI is close to oversold but hasn’t turned around. The MACD remains deep below zero, with both lines trending further apart. These signals don’t suggest a change in direction. They show that sellers still control the market for now.

Setup Is There — But No Move Yet

While the long-term chart structure looks similar to earlier breakouts, the market hasn’t followed through. Volume is flat. The price is still trending lower. And sentiment is cautious.

Traders tracking the setup are split. Some are watching for confirmation, others are staying out until stronger signs appear. 

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