Nedbank’s $855M bid targets NCBA as South African giant eyes East Africa expansion

• Nedbank has proposed a mixed consideration structure: 20% in cash and 80% through newly issued Nedbank ordinary shares listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.
• NCBA already operates 122 branches across Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Côte d’Ivoire, and Ghana, serving over 60 million customers.
• Market analysts view the bid as a strategic masterstroke for Nedbank, which has long sought diversification beyond Southern Africa.

South Africa’s Nedbank Group has formally submitted a strategic offer to acquire approximately 66 per cent of Kenya’s NCBA Group for around $855 million (KES110.32 billion), marking one of the largest cross-border banking deals in East Africa in recent years.

The bid, announced on 21 January 2026, positions Nedbank to establish a controlling stake in the region’s fastest-growing financial hub and use NCBA as its cornerstone platform for expansion across East Africa.

Nedbank has proposed a mixed consideration structure: 20 percent in cash and 80 percent through newly issued Nedbank ordinary shares listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The offer values NCBA at 1.4 times its book value and will be executed via a tender offer to NCBA shareholders.

If successful, NCBA will become a Nedbank subsidiary, while the remaining 34 percent of shares will continue trading on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE), preserving public listing and local brand identity.

Exploring investment proposition

NCBA Group Managing Director John Gachora welcomed the proposal, describing Nedbank as “an ideal partner for our growth in the East Africa region.” He highlighted Nedbank’s strong market position in South Africa (16–17 percent share in loans and deposits, 36 percent in vehicle and commercial property finance) and top-tier ESG ratings among global peers. “Their strong balance sheet will help us scale in our current markets as well as exploring the investment proposition that the DRC and Ethiopia have to offer,” Gachora said.

Nedbank Chief Executive Jason Quinn echoed the strategic fit. “Nedbank has a strategic objective to grow and diversify outside of its core Southern Africa market, and we identified East Africa as a key growth region,” he stated.

Quinn emphasized Kenya’s role as a regional financial hub, supported by strong institutions, sophisticated markets, and a dynamic technology sector. “The region’s stable operating environment, consistent macroeconomic performance, a young, growing urbanizing population, and vibrant business community further reinforce its attractiveness and growth potential,” he added.

The proposed transaction carries significant implications for the East African banking landscape. NCBA already operates 122 branches across Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Côte d’Ivoire, and Ghana, serving over 60 million customers. It holds KSh665 billion in assets, disburses more than KSh1 trillion in digital loans annually, and has delivered an average return on equity of around 19 percent since its 2021 formation through the merger of NIC Group and Commercial Bank of Africa.

For the JSE-listed lender, the deal provides immediate scale in East Africa, where it currently maintains only a representative office, without the complexities of full system integration. Nedbank intends to preserve NCBA’s brand, governance structures, operational model, and management team, ensuring continuity for customers and staff.

Nedbank and NCBA aim to position Kenya as the anchor for broader East African expansion

The combined entity would gain enhanced corporate and investment banking capabilities through Nedbank’s global presence, cross-border expertise, and larger lending capacity, while NCBA would benefit from access to Nedbank’s talent pool and training opportunities across multiple geographies.

The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals from central banks in the relevant jurisdictions and is expected to close within six to nine months. If completed, the South African lender and NCBA aim to position Kenya as the anchor for broader East African expansion, tapping into a combined market of roughly 190 million people with a collective GDP approaching $300 billion. Ethiopia (136 million people, ~$135 billion GDP) and the Democratic Republic of Congo (110 million people, ~$70 billion GDP) are highlighted as additional high-potential markets.

Market analysts view the bid as a strategic masterstroke for the South African giant, which has long sought diversification beyond Southern Africa. For NCBA shareholders, the offer provides an opportunity to realize value at a premium to book while retaining exposure to the growth prospects of a larger, regionally diversified banking group. The deal also signals renewed confidence in Kenya’s financial sector as a gateway to East Africa’s high-growth opportunities.

Read also: Kenya’s NCBA Group reports 56 per cent jump in net profit to $162.3 million

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