Where is the Bottom for Bitcoin?

It is no longer a question of whether the bear market has started. It’s glaring as the apex coin dropped below $70k for the first time since November 2024.

Confirming the current market trend, Glassnode provided fresh data. One such example is the Risk Indicator, which displays more than 4 metrics. The first to consider is the active, and BTC realized price. A closer look at the chart shows that investors are currently selling at lower prices and incurring losses.

Away from the realized price, the short-term holders’ cost basis is another concerning metric. It dropped significantly over the last three months as selling from this cohort increased and buying declined.

Although there are other indicators on the chart, they are pointing to one thing: the bear market is here. However, there have been questions about when it started, as investors were optimistic about further price increases by Q4 2025.

Several Ignored Signs

Entering the fourth quarter, many proponents were very bullish about how prices would play out, with most setting a $150k price target for the apex coin. They all concluded that since it closed September with significant increases, Q4 would be very positive.

However, assessing how the asset performed during the eighth month, an outlook covering the next three months cited the first sign of trouble. It noted that the US government shutdown may be the catalyst for a further decline in October, adding that BTC could plummet by 10%.

The apex coin retraced by over 6% but rebounded, ending the month down by almost 4%. Nonetheless, the analysis also highlighted additional developments on the 1-month chart. It stated that Bitcoin “broke above the bollinger bands twice in the last two months.”

As seen in previous price movements, breaking above the BB normally signals the end of the uptrend. The outlook concluded by stating: “It may end Q4 with no significant improvement in price” due to the breakout.

True to the predictions, the apex coin lost over 24% during the fourth quarter. In summary, per the outlook, the bear market started in October.

Another analyst, CryptoVizArt, highlighted several other onchain data as of November, indicating that the bear market had started. One such was the cumulative profit-taking by long-term holders, which reached “an exceptionally large volume compared to previous cycles.”

He concluded by citing the realized profit-to-loss ratio, adding that the metric has been declining since late July. Such a downturn only happens when liquidity is contracting beneath the surface.

Where is Bitcoin Now?

There are several hypotheses about where the bottom lies. Following Peter Brandt’s statements about a possible drop to $30k, an analysis in response highlighted several reasons this may not be possible and hinted at the next bottom.

One such is that since 2020, BTC has not retested its two-year low. It broke above $30k in October 2023 and has remained above it since. This leads to the conclusion that the bottom is higher, since the chances of slipping below the barrier are almost zero.

The analysis based its “bottom call” on the Bitcoin rainbow chart, stating that a drop to $60k is more likely, and this may be the bottom.

Bitcoin dropped below $60k for the first time since 2024. It had another massive plunge on Friday, dropping to a low of $59,930. However, the decline during the previous intraday session was meager compared to the over 13% dump it had on Thursday.

BTC plummeted from $73k to $62k and continued to decline the next day. It rebounded on the last weekday and currently trades at $69k. Bearing in mind that the previous analysis suggested that the bottom would be $60k, a question about its accuracy comes to mind.

The apex coin is not showing signs of ending its downtrend at the time of writing. This means it will plummet even lower in the coming days.

Talking about the bottom, NoLimit, a serial investor and analyst, used a time-frame method to estimate the possible lowest price for the current cycle. He noted that BTC clocked its low for the previous cycle 376 days from its ATH. The 2016 cycle also ended 363 days, a few days lower than 406 days in the 2012 cycle.

On average, the bottoms come a year after the ATH. If this trend holds, the current cycle low will occur between October and November.  He concluded by adding a $45k low to the prediction.

However, indicators and the 1-month chart tell a slightly different story about the cycle’s low.

Bitcoin 1-Month Chart Calls the Bottom.

Since Bitcoin began its downtrend in October, it has remained within the bollinger bands on the 1-month chart. In addition to signaling the end of the uptrend, the metric also points to a possible bottom.

At the time of writing, the asset is trading below the middle band but has edged closer to testing the lower band in recent days. However, it rebounded and is currently trending above $70k.

The apex coin will certainly test the lower band in the coming months. With the band currently at $55,294, further slips below $60,000 are inevitable. Per the BB, this may be the bottom.

However, a closer look at the chart shows that a drop below the lower band on the 1-month scale has happened only once since 2016. If a slip happens this time, the next level with notable demand concentration is $50k.

Away from the bollinger bands, the relative strength index also points to a possible bottom. A closer look at the metric shows that previous bear markets ended when it slipped to 44. It has rebounded at this level twice since inception.

However, RSI dropped below this level during the previous bear market and rebounded at 41. A repeat may happen in the coming days and will likely rebound at the same level. This means the metric will plummet by more than 12% in the coming days.

Bearing in mind that the current low is $59,930, adding a 12% plunge will mean a drop to $52k.

In summary, the bollinger bands hint at a dip to $55k and RSI suggests $52k. The bottom may likely be around $50k-$55k.

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