How Bitcoin is guiding the next recession, strategist explains

Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone believes the ongoing slide in Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market may be offering an early signal of the next U.S. recession, rather than a routine pullback in speculative assets.

In an X post on February 15, McGlone argued that what equity analysts may soon describe as a healthy correction could instead mark the unwinding of excess built up over more than a decade of aggressive dip-buying.

Indeed, Bitcoin continues to struggle with volatility, with establishing its price above the $70,000 level a key challenge. Despite making progress above this mark on Sunday, the asset has since retraced, trading at $68,488, down almost 2% in the past 24 hours.

McGlone also pointed to what he described as an imploding crypto bubble following a peak in speculative and political euphoria, alongside a resurgence in gold and silver occurring at a pace last witnessed around half a century ago. Rising volatility in precious metals, in his view, is likely to spill over into equities.

At the same time, the strategist noted that since the 2008 financial crisis, investors have largely been rewarded for buying weakness, but he suggests that era may be nearing its end as multiple macro indicators flash warning signs.

Among them is the U.S. stock market’s capitalization-to-GDP ratio, which has climbed to levels not seen in about a century, underscoring historically stretched valuations.

Meanwhile, 180-day volatility in both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 has dropped to its lowest point in roughly eight years, a condition that often precedes sharp market repricing.

Bitcoin relationship with stocks 

His outlook was accompanied by an analysis reinforcing the tight relationship between Bitcoin and U.S. equities. By dividing Bitcoin’s price by 10 for comparison, the cryptocurrency is trading at roughly the same level as the S&P 500 on February 13, with both hovering just below the 7,000 mark.

The alignment highlights Bitcoin’s continued role as a high-beta proxy for broader risk appetite. If equities struggle to hold that threshold, McGlone sees little reason for a more volatile, beta-dependent asset such as Bitcoin to remain elevated.

Meanwhile, a reversion toward the S&P 500’s five-year moving average near 5,600 would represent a logical initial normalization.

Such a move would correspond to approximately $56,000 for Bitcoin under the same comparative framework.

Beyond that, McGlone’s broader base case envisions the possibility of Bitcoin ultimately reverting toward $10,000 in the event of a confirmed U.S. stock market peak.

In this context, levels such as 7,000 on the S&P 500 or 50,000 on the Dow are unlikely to mark durable tops without wider consequences.

If equities roll over from these elevated levels, Bitcoin’s amplified swings could act as a leading indicator of tightening financial conditions and recession risk.

For McGlone, the current crypto downturn may not be an isolated collapse but rather the first visible crack in an overstretched risk-asset cycle.

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