Group Psychology Game: Token Cognition Maps of Three Types of Players

Author: hitesh.eth

Compiled by: Luffy, Foresight News

People’s perception of token issuance stems from evolutionary trends. In cryptocurrencies, evolutionary trends often carry the memory of past profits. What matters is not just what happened in the past, but the patterns that worked in the past. Therefore, most participants are not really betting on fundamentals, but trying to recreate the moments that made money in the past, subconsciously chasing historical highs by repeating the same behavior.

In this market, there are participants from different time points:

• Some are “old players” before 2018;
• Most of them are the group that entered the market after 2020;
• There are also new on-chain users who have joined in the past three years.

These groups have different perceptions of token launches based on their evolutionary tendencies, which means they have very different emotional interpretations and expectations for the same event.

• Participants before 2018 still pursue certainty, value roadmaps, token economics, practicality and vision, and hope that the team can provide proof of work, actual progress, and preferably real income. They are the natives of ICO, they have witnessed the changes of the cycle, and tend to those projects that are constantly evolving.
• Participants after 2020 are looking for shortcuts, and most of them still hold tokens "fed" by KOLs. Their mentality is rooted in wishful thinking. They may not care about the essence of the project, but only care whether someone will take it at a higher price. Patience is limited, but expectations are unlimited.
• Recently, newcomers on the chain are looking for free income or quick excitement. They act aggressively and quickly, participate in all mining, follow all trends, run for points, and try to hype every hot spot. But their expectations are too high, and even if they make a few thousand dollars, they still think it is not enough. In the end, they lose money due to excessive trading, and most of them are deeply trapped and unable to extricate themselves.

These three types of participants have three different "psychological spaces", which I call intersubjective spaces.

Intersubjectivity in cryptocurrency is not an abstract philosophical concept, but a real one. It refers to the fact that many people share a common belief, and this "collective fiction" temporarily becomes a reality due to the joint actions of all people.

In the cryptocurrency space, these shared beliefs drive the market.

The minds of participants in these spaces are inter-subjective. They endorse each other, hype each other, and defend each other’s views. This inter-subjectivity creates a powerful group, a tribal force, which acts as a positive or negative catalyst for tokens.

People in these intersubjective spaces are involved early on. They take more risks, invest more energy, and believe in the story before it becomes reality.

When tokens are delivered, they become emotionally invested. They don’t just hold the tokens, they become the tokens themselves. They are the community. They become the face of the project on social media, attracting attention, creating memes, attracting others, and continually expanding the intersubjective space.

Hyperliquid is a typical case: early believers formed a strong inter-subject group, and were rewarded through large-scale airdrops, and the airdrops themselves became evidence that "belief works", which in turn gave rise to more beliefs, forming a cycle. Similar logic also applies to Memecoins such as BONK, WIF, and POPCAT, which are all driven by inter-subject energy first.

In crypto, price is the narrative and is the leading indicator.

If the price goes up, more people will join in. But before that happens, someone needs to believe that the price will go up. This is where intersubjective groups come into play.

They act before the effect. They become the cause. These believers do not act in isolation, they act through interpersonal collaboration. They market together, post together, fight together, and build a shared reality together.

When others start to join in, they see the price as confirmation. The price is no longer just a number, it’s a signal. This signal will cycle back and forth, inspiring more confidence, more buying, and more price action. This is reflexivity.

The reflexive nature of cryptocurrencies means that prices influence beliefs, which in turn influence prices. It’s a feedback loop where perception and valuation influence each other.

The specific manifestations are:

• People buy tokens because of price appreciation;
• The price increase became a proof of success;
• Successfully converted into marketing materials;
• Marketing shapes narratives;
• Narratives attract more buyers;
• More buyers push prices further up.

But the “cause” of the price surge is far more complicated than the “effect”:

• Memcoin’s drive may be cultural;
• DeFi projects may be derived from income;
• AI agents may originate from technology.

What they all have in common is that they start with a shared belief among a few and end with buy-in from the majority.

People who enter at the reflexivity stage usually buy "dreams" rather than logic, which becomes the "exit liquidity" for those who enter at the intersubjective stage.

At this time, the game becomes asymmetric.

Participants in both phases (intersubjectivity and reflexivity) manipulate information, create narratives, distort facts, and extend beliefs in order to align others with their version of reality.

Over time, multiple realities have formed around the same symbol. Each group believes slightly differently. These are perceived realities, micro-echo chambers of beliefs. Each group has different reasons for holding different views, expects different outcomes, and exits at different moments. These micro-intersubjective spaces create unrest, fear, greed, and often chaos.

Most people in these micro realities will fall into extreme greed, forgetting their original intentions and only remembering the possible losses. When the bubble bursts, they not only lose money, but also lose their faith, and collapse in the space where they once celebrated.

The real beneficiaries of token price discovery are those who coordinate early (the process of shaping token prices through shared beliefs, behavioral resonance, and group collaboration). But even they can only profit if the token price is higher than their expectations for a long time, allowing them to exit with confidence.

Ultimately, price discovery is not a charting event, it’s a coordination event. It’s shaped by how humans perceive value, believe in stories, and act in sync with others.

So, you should always know:

• What stage you are in?
• What kind of “reality” is being participated in;
• What kind of perception do you have when you think that a token will rise?

The clearer you understand your own psychological foundations, the better results you can create for your positions.