Bulls Target $94 Supertrend as ETFs Hold $1.5B

• Solana trades at $86.21, up 1.47%, holding above ascending trendline support as RSI climbs to 58.55.
• Open interest rises 0.91% to $5.10B while volume surges 22.82% to $13.52B, with shorts absorbing $6.83M in liquidations.
• SOL spot ETFs hold $1.5B in net inflows despite a 57% price decline, with 50% from institutional 13F filers.

Solana price today trades near $86.21, up 1.47%, as buyers defend an ascending trendline that has held since the late-February lows near $75. The daily chart remains bearish with all four EMAs stacked above price, but short-term structure is improving and derivatives data supports the move.

The daily chart tells the full story. Solana completed a head and shoulders breakdown from the September 2025 peak near $260, with the pattern confirming the downtrend that has since erased more than two thirds of its value. The 20-day EMA at $85.92, 50-day at $95.44, 100-day at $112.25, and 200-day at $133.27 form a descending resistance ladder above price. Reclaiming the 20-day is the first real test, and that is exactly what price is attempting today.

1-Hour Chart: SAR Flips As RSI Builds Momentum

The Parabolic SAR has flipped to support at $84.88 while RSI sits at 58.55, trending higher alongside price without hitting overbought territory yet. The ascending trendline from February lows holds near $82, containing every pullback since the bottom.

Breaking $87 to $88 with volume clears the path toward the $94 Supertrend on the daily chart. That level has capped every recovery since November 2025 and flipping it bullish would be the first genuine trend change signal SOL has produced in months.

Key levels:

• Trendline support: ~$82 rising
• SAR support: $84.88
• Resistance: $87 to $88
• Supertrend target: $94

Derivatives: Short Squeeze Already Underway

Open interest climbed 0.91% to $5.10B as volume rose 22.82% to $13.52B, confirming fresh positioning rather than thin-market noise. The Binance long/short ratio sits at 2.38 for accounts and 2.59 for top traders, a meaningful bullish lean without dangerous overleveraging.

Short liquidations hit $6.83M against $2.23M for longs over 24 hours. The squeeze is already happening, and a push above $88 could trigger a second wave of forced short covering that accelerates the move toward $94.

ETF Institutions Are Sitting On Losses And Not Selling

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted on March 10 that SOL spot ETFs accumulated $1.5B in net inflows since launching in July 2025 without giving any back, even as price fell 57% from the launch date. Half those assets come from institutional 13F filers, a regulated, patient investor base sitting on unrealised losses and holding position.

When price recovers and the Supertrend flips, that demand does not need to be rebuilt from scratch. It is already in place, and it represents a structural floor that purely technical analysis would miss entirely.

Outlook: Will Solana Go Up?

• Bullish case: SOL holds the ascending trendline, reclaims $85.92 on a daily close, and breaks $87 to $88 resistance. That targets the $94 Supertrend flip, with continuation toward $112 if momentum holds.
• Bearish case: Rejection at $87 to $88 breaks the trendline and exposes $80. Failure there brings the $75 to $76 lows back into play, with limited technical support until the $60 to $65 zone.