Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Bitfinex Long Positions Hit 28-Month High — What History Says Happens Next

TLDR

• Bitcoin is trading near $66,500–$67,000, down from $71,000 last week and 47% below its all-time high of $126,080.
• Bullish long positions on Bitfinex have hit a 28-month high — a historically bearish signal.
• The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict is driving inflation fears, keeping the Federal Reserve from cutting rates.
• Analysts see $60,000 as the next potential support level if conditions worsen.
• Institutional investors continue to accumulate, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing over $1.13 billion in monthly inflows.

Bitcoin has been trading around $66,500 to $67,000 over the past 24 hours. That’s a drop from roughly $71,000 last week, and the price briefly touched $65,000 on Saturday before recovering slightly. At those levels, BTC sits 47% below its all-time high of $126,080, set in October 2025.

The crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at just 9, firmly in “extreme fear” territory.

One closely watched data point is adding to the bearish picture. Bullish long positions on Bitfinex — wagers that bitcoin’s price will rise — have climbed to 79,343, the highest level since November 2023. Historically, that kind of spike in longs has acted as a contrary indicator. In fact, BTC/USD longs on Bitfinex rose 30% in the final quarter of 2025, even as bitcoin’s spot price fell 23% to $87,550.

The pattern is consistent: when Bitfinex longs peak, bitcoin prices tend to fall. When longs decline, prices tend to recover.

Geopolitical Pressure on Prices

The U.S.-Iran conflict continues to weigh on global markets. Iran has launched strikes on Gulf states including Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, while peace talks remain stalled. That has pushed oil prices higher, fueling inflation concerns and reducing the chances of Federal Reserve rate cuts — both of which push down on crypto prices.

Rachael Lucas, crypto analyst at BTC Markets, described this week’s moves as “a classic risk-off unwind.” Bitcoin touched $72,000 mid-week on hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough, then gave back those gains when talks stalled.

Andri Fauzan Adziima, Research Lead at Bitrue, agreed that the market remains headline-driven. He said any de-escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict could spark a rally above $70,000.

Institutions Buy While Retail Sits Out

Retail and institutional investors are currently moving in opposite directions. Lucas noted that everyday investors are “hedging or sitting on the sidelines,” while institutional buyers continue to step in. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded over $1.13 billion in monthly inflows, breaking four straight months of net outflows. Strategy has continued buying, and Morgan Stanley is preparing a low-fee bitcoin ETF launch.

Macro data this week, including initial jobless claims and March non-farm payrolls, could shift sentiment if employment figures disappoint.

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