Chatter 'getting louder' about Dem chances to win Senate majority: data expert

CNN's Harry Enten examined the odds of Democrats taking back control of the U.S. Senate, and he said the chatter is growing louder in the prediction markets.

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, and while polling strongly suggests Democrats are poised to win control of the U.S. House in November's midterms, that possibility seems a bit more daunting in the upper chamber.

"You don't have to listen very closely to hear Democrats talking about the Senate," said CNN's John Berman, introducing the chief data analyst. "The whispers are getting louder. Could Democrats take back the Senate? A year ago, it seemed like it was an impossible task. What about now?"

"I've never whispered once in my life, John Berman, but look, the voices are getting louder and louder and louder," Enten began. "They may be, in fact, a Festivus miracle for Democrats because just take a look at the Kalshi prediction market. This is the Dems' chances to win 2026 Senate races, and these are all GOP-held seats. Look at this in North Carolina. What are we looking at? Roy Cooper, the Democratic nominee there, an 84 percent chance. In Maine, could they knock off Susan Collins? That, of course, was a state won by Kamala Harris, a 71 percent chance there. Alaska, Alaska, which hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, a 56 percent chance there, and then Sherrod Brown, the very likely Democratic nominee, a 54 percent chance in Ohio. Of course, Sherrod Brown was knocked off back in 2024, but I will note he was re-elected during a Trump midterm back in 2018."

"If Democrats pulled off the Festivus miracle and went four for four, which the prediction market says, hey, it's a real possibility, look at this, they would, in fact, get to 51 Senate seats," Enten added. "You win up in Maine, okay, you win in Ohio, you win in North Carolina, and you win the big state of Alaska, which we got all the way back, what about 1867, it's so large. That would, in fact, get you to 51 Senate seats. So, you know, it was something that was whispering about, but, like me, getting louder and louder and louder."

Enten dug into the polling data and concluded that President Donald Trump's sagging approval was dragging down Republican candidates, as well.

"Let's take a look at Alaska, North Carolina, Ohio, let's take the aggregate totals in all of them," he said. "Look back in the 2024 election. Across those three, Trump won by seven points, but look at his net approval rating now. His net approval rating way down, he's no longer popular in these states. He's at 10 points underwater, so all of a sudden you're thinking to yourself, hey, you know what, these are Trump-won states, but he's no longer popular. He has become quite unpopular."

"The other little nugget I'll note is, you know, we said four for four, but there is a fifth possibility because you got a Texas backup, right?" Enten added. "Choice for Texas Senate, James Talarico versus John Cornyn. Cornyn is only up by a point. Ken Paxton only up by two, so maybe you lose in a state like Alaska, but, hey, you can sub in a Texas and still get to 51 for Dems. So it's not so much of a long shot, at least anymore."

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