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The post Prediction markets, DATs, the fee switch, and Project Crypto appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. This is a segment from The Breakdown newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe. “If you can’t make money, you may want to consider being quiet. Maybe the market knows more than you do.” — Jeff Yass Today, The Breakdown looks at developing stories and links from around the cryptoverse. After Jeff Yass brought his math and poker skills onto trading floors in the 1980s, global options markets stopped looking like a casino and started looking like a science. Yass thinks prediction markets could do the same for the world. First and foremost, he says, “It will stop wars.” Yass cites the second Iraq War, which President Bush said would cost the US $20 billion but is now thought to have cost at least $2 trillion, and maybe as much as $6 trillion. It’s unlikely prediction markets would have settled on such an astronomical number, but Yass believes they might have predicted something like $500 billion, in which case “people might have said, ‘Look, we don’t want this war.’” That would have saved many, many lives, as well: “If people know how expensive it’s going to be and how disastrous it’s going to be, they’ll try to come up with other solutions.” Prediction markets, he says, “can really slow down the lies that politicians are constantly telling us.” He also cites applications in insurance, technology and even dating. Asked by the 16-year-old podcast host what advice he’d give young people, Yass suggested they could avoid relationship mistakes by creating an anonymous prediction market for their friends to bet on. “I believe in markets,” he concluded. It sounds like a dumb idea: Unlike stocks with their open-ended valuations, prediction markets should converge toward the single fixed probability of a binary outcome. But the author of No Dumb Ideas crunched the numbers and…

Every day after the presale auction goes live, the Zero Knowledge Proof (ZKP) ecosystem resets its clock. Every 24 hours, a new Initial Coin Auction (ICA) begins, 200 million tokens distributed proportionally among contributors, based entirely on the day’s total contributions. There are no private rounds, no insider discounts, and no whales buying their way [...] The post Zero Knowledge Proof Whitelist Open: How to Master The 24-Hour ICA Daily Token Distribution appeared first on Blockonomi.

The post Fed forecasts only one rate cut in 2026, a more conservative outlook than expected appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell talks to reporters following the regular Federal Open Market Committee meetings at the Fed on July 30, 2025 in Washington, DC. Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images The Federal Reserve is projecting only one rate cut in 2026, fewer than expected, according to its median projection. The central bank’s so-called dot plot, which shows 19 individual members’ expectations anonymously, indicated a median estimate of 3.4% for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026. That compares to a median estimate of 3.6% for the end of this year following two expected cuts on top of Wednesday’s reduction. A single quarter-point reduction next year is significantly more conservative than current market pricing. Traders are currently pricing in at two to three more rate cuts next year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, updated shortly after the decision. The gauge uses prices on 30-day fed funds futures contracts to determine market-implied odds for rate moves. Here are the Fed’s latest targets from 19 FOMC members, both voters and nonvoters: Zoom In IconArrows pointing outwards The forecasts, however, showed a large difference of opinion with two voting members seeing as many as four cuts. Three officials penciled in three rate reductions next year. “Next year’s dot plot is a mosaic of different perspectives and is an accurate reflection of a confusing economic outlook, muddied by labor supply shifts, data measurement concerns, and government policy upheaval and uncertainty,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. The central bank has two policy meetings left for the year, one in October and one in December. Economic projections from the Fed saw slightly faster economic growth in 2026 than was projected in June, while the outlook for inflation was updated modestly higher for next year. There’s a lot of uncertainty…