Prediction markets, DATs, the fee switch, and Project Crypto
The post Prediction markets, DATs, the fee switch, and Project Crypto appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. This is a segment from The Breakdown newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe. “If you can’t make money, you may want to consider being quiet. Maybe the market knows more than you do.” — Jeff Yass Today, The Breakdown looks at developing stories and links from around the cryptoverse. After Jeff Yass brought his math and poker skills onto trading floors in the 1980s, global options markets stopped looking like a casino and started looking like a science. Yass thinks prediction markets could do the same for the world. First and foremost, he says, “It will stop wars.” Yass cites the second Iraq War, which President Bush said would cost the US $20 billion but is now thought to have cost at least $2 trillion, and maybe as much as $6 trillion. It’s unlikely prediction markets would have settled on such an astronomical number, but Yass believes they might have predicted something like $500 billion, in which case “people might have said, ‘Look, we don’t want this war.’” That would have saved many, many lives, as well: “If people know how expensive it’s going to be and how disastrous it’s going to be, they’ll try to come up with other solutions.” Prediction markets, he says, “can really slow down the lies that politicians are constantly telling us.” He also cites applications in insurance, technology and even dating. Asked by the 16-year-old podcast host what advice he’d give young people, Yass suggested they could avoid relationship mistakes by creating an anonymous prediction market for their friends to bet on. “I believe in markets,” he concluded. It sounds like a dumb idea: Unlike stocks with their open-ended valuations, prediction markets should converge toward the single fixed probability of a binary outcome. But the author of No Dumb Ideas crunched the numbers and…
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/11/14 23:52