MSTR Stock Price Forecast as Bitcoin Crash Risk Rise

Key Insights

• The MSTR stock price may crash below the important support level at $100 soon.
• Bitcoin has some highly bearish data such as the Coinbase Premium Index.
• Strategy has formed a death cross pattern and on the three-day chart.

The MSTR stock price is going through its worst streaks on record. It has fallen for 9 consecutive months and is hovering near its lowest level since September 2024. This retreat may continue in the coming weeks as Bitcoin’s technicals and fundamentals deteriorate.

Bitcoin Fundamentals and Technicals Point to More Weakness

Third-party data shows that Bitcoin is in trouble, a trend that may continue in the coming weeks or months.

One of these numbers is the Coinbase Premium Index, which compares Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase and other international products exchanges.

Ideally, a positive number means the Bitcoin price is higher on Coinbase than elsewhere, a sign that American investors are accumulating. As the chart below shows, the index has remained in the red in the past two weeks.

More data shows that demand for Bitcoin ETFs remains weak. These funds shed over $296 million in assets last week, bringing the cumulative total net inflows to $55 billion.

Most importantly, futures open interest has continued to fall over the past few months, a sign that investors are reducing their leverage in the crypto industry.

The open interest has dropped to over $45 billion from $95 billion a few months ago. This retreat accelerated after the October 10 liquidation when over 1.6 million traders were wiped out.

BTC Price is Forming the Second Bearish Flag Since October

Bitcoin’s technicals also point to more downside in the coming weeks or months. The three-day chart shows the coin formed a bearish flag pattern from October last year to January this year. This flag led to a crash from $90,000 to the year-to-date low of $60,000

That crash formed the flagpole of the bearish flag that is forming today, and which is in the flag section. A closer look shows that the coin has formed a small head-and-shoulders pattern.

It also formed a death cross on February 27, when the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) crossed. This pattern typically indicates that short-term momentum is continuing and signals more downside over time.

Therefore, these patterns mean that Bitcoin is at risk of more downside, with the next important target being the year-to-date low of $60,000. A move below that price will be a sign that bears have prevailed and will push it to the psychological level at $50,000.

On top of this, there are signs that the ongoing Iran war will take longer than the two weeks that President Donald Trump has predicted. That’s because Iran has continued to intensify its attacks on its neighbors and Israel. It has also rejected any ceasefire talks. As such, risky assets like Bitcoin may remain under pressure.

MSTR Stock Price May Crash to $100 and Below

The main bearish case for MicroStrategy’s stock price is that Bitcoin has weak fundamentals and technicals. This is important as the company holds 762,099 coins, which are currently worth $50.6 billion. Michael Saylor and the team have also pledged to continue buying Bitcoin as they believe it will rebound.

The three-day chart also points to further downside for MSTR stock. It has already moved below the final Fibonacci Retracement level at 78.6%. In most cases, an asset continues its downtrend when it moves below this price.

The stock also formed a bearish pennant pattern and has continued to make a series of lower lows and lower highs.

Therefore, the MSTR share price will likely continue falling, potentially to the key support level at $105.65, its lowest level in February this year.

A drop below that price raises the possibility that it will fall below the crucial support level at $100, and possibly to $70, the highest point in January 2024.

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