'Ginormous blowout' within reach for Democrats if polling trends holds firm: data expert

CNN's Harry Enten analyzed the range of outcomes likely in November's midterm elections, and he found that massive gain were within reach for the Democratic Party.

The political landscape was convulsed by the mid-decade redistricting war kicked off by President Donald Trump in Texas, and last month's Supreme Court ruling on Louisiana's congressional map set off another mad dash of partisan gerrymandering, so Enten tried to determine the possible outcomes based on this new reality.

"I'm going to put on my professor cap here," Enten said. "I think that, you know, sometimes we sort of get lost, right, we focus in on one poll and one narrative, and sometimes there are competing narratives, and I think it's worth just taking a step back because I think some people are like, well, the polls showed one thing and another thing happened."

Enten examined five polls showing Democrats with a lead in voters' choice for Congress, but they led by 3 percent in one poll, 5 percent in two polls and 10 percent in two others.

"There's quite this bit of variance that is going on right here, and you know what?" Enten said. "This is actually a good thing. This is a normal thing, this is what happens when you have margins of error that are going out there. You'd expect an average, but then you have a range of possible results around that average, and we're not necessarily sure which one is right if the election were held today, and, of course, there's the extra variance of the fact that the election is not being held until November."

Enten drilled in further to try and predict how many seats Democrats could gain if those polling leads held firm.

"What's the difference between, let's say, Democrats winning by 100 versus winning by three, and this is where it gets really interesting," he said. "Okay, so even if you take redistricting into account, given a popular vote win of, let's say, three points, what would that mean for Democratic House gains? They gain probably somewhere in estimate is between zero and six seats, which at the upper end of that range would be enough to take back the House. But on the lower end of that range, that would not be, that would be Republicans holding on."

"But what about that 10-point lead that you see in Marist, the New York Times?" Enten added. "Well, that would be a ginormous blowout, and this is just an estimate. It could be higher, a little bit higher, a little bit lower. But we're talking about an estimate of a Democratic gain of between 20 to 30 seats or more. They could be ending up 245 seats or north of there potentially, versus being stuck, let's say 213, 214, 215 to 216, maybe barely getting to a majority. So look, when you see this range of potential results, I want you to keep in mind, yes, Democrats are probably favored to take back the House. It's by no means a guarantee, but they could end up blowing the Republicans right out of the water. All of that is within the margin of error at this point, especially given that months from the election."

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