Will the Uptrend in Bitcoin Return? Experts Weigh In on BTC’s Future

In its latest market review, cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex stated that Bitcoin’s upward momentum is beginning to weaken and that macroeconomic pressures are reducing risk appetite in the market.

According to the company, the slowdown in corporate demand, the diminishing expectations of interest rate cuts, and rising inflationary pressures are increasing the downside risks for the Bitcoin price.

According to Bitfinex data, Bitcoin started the week at $82,160 but once again failed to break through the strong resistance zone between $80,000 and $83,000. Losing 4.6% on a weekly basis, BTC began testing below the $77,000 level again, influenced by geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices. Analysts stated that maintaining this level, which is close to the monthly opening, is critical for the continuation of the current recovery.

The report noted that the pullback in Bitcoin was not limited to price movements alone. It stated that there was a net outflow of approximately $1 billion from US spot Bitcoin ETFs last week, ending a six-week streak of uninterrupted inflows. The IBIT ETF, offered by BlackRock, one of the world’s largest asset management companies, was also affected by institutional withdrawals. Furthermore, the weakening seen in yield-generating products like STRC indicated a simultaneous narrowing of marginal demand sources in the market.

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On-chain data also indicates weakening market momentum. While monthly capital inflows remain positive at around $2.8 billion, this is significantly below the $10 billion inflow levels seen during strong bull markets. According to Bitfinex, this suggests that despite Bitcoin’s recovery towards $82,000, institutional investors are not demonstrating sufficient confidence to absorb macroeconomic shocks.

On the macroeconomic front, it was stated that the “long-term high interest rate” scenario in the US has regained strength. The rise in April’s CPI data to 3.8% year-on-year showed that not only energy prices but also persistent inflation in the services sector increased price pressure. With real wage growth turning negative and long-term US Treasury yields reaching their highest levels in recent years, it was noted that markets have begun to withdraw their expectations of interest rate cuts this year.

The report specifically stated that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz negatively impacted global oil supply, and that Brent crude oil prices rising above $100 per barrel increased inflationary pressures. It noted that rising energy costs directly impacted fuel, transportation, and consumer prices, weakening appetite for risky assets.

Despite this, it was emphasized that regulatory developments and institutional expansion continue in the crypto sector. The US Senate Banking Committee’s advancement of the CLARITY Act was seen as a significant step toward more clearly defining the boundaries of authority between the SEC and the CFTC. Furthermore, the launch of the spot Hyperliquid ETF with integrated staking rewards by digital asset management company Bitwise demonstrated continued institutional interest in advanced crypto investment products beyond BTC and ETH.

However, Bitfinex warned that rising inflation expectations and increasing bond yields could increase pressure on digital asset markets in the short term. According to the company, strong outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs indicate that investors are beginning to reduce their exposure to risky assets.

*This is not investment advice.

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