Crypto traders hoping for a festive lift have been forced to reset expectations. The long-anticipated Federal Reserve rate…Crypto traders hoping for a festive lift have been forced to reset expectations. The long-anticipated Federal Reserve rate…

Crypto traders shift focus to January after Fed rate cut failed to spark Santa rally

2025/12/11 23:23

Crypto traders hoping for a festive lift have been forced to reset expectations. The long-anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut arrived on Wednesday, a 25-basis-point cut, lowering the federal funds target to 3.50-3.75 per cent, yet it did little to ignite the traditional year-end momentum many in the market were watching for. Instead of a Santa rally, Bitcoin slipped from about $94,000 to below $90,000 within minutes of the Fed’s announcement, with other major coins following the same trend.

The reaction was telling. After a year defined by shifting macro signals and aggressive positioning, the first rate cut of this cycle was expected to offer a psychological boost. It did not. Markets pulled back, and crypto sentiment reset almost immediately. Traders are now looking past December and pinning their hopes on early 2026, where conviction appears far stronger than anything on offer this season.

Adam Chu, chief researcher at the options analytics platform GreeksLive, is quoted by Decrypt as having said that the seasonal liquidity crunch remains a major factor. “With Christmas and year-end settlement approaching, this period historically marks the weakest liquidity conditions in crypto,” he noted. He added that market activity tends to thin out sharply in late December. The result is a narrow window where even positive news struggles to translate into meaningful price action.

Crypto traders shift focus to January after the Fed rate cut fails to spark a Santa rallyBitcoin slumps despite Fed rate cut

Chu also pointed to a drop in implied volatility, a key metric watched closely by options traders. Lower implied volatility signals fewer expectations for sharp price swings. It is another reason, he said, why the odds of a sustained December rally were always slim. The aggressive positioning seen earlier in the quarter appears to have eased, replaced with caution as traders step back from the market’s most speculative corners.

The crypto market is now looking to 2026 instead

While December has disappointed, the tone for the first quarter of 2026 is far more optimistic. Traders are already shifting capital and risk appetite towards January and beyond, betting that the combination of looser monetary policy and fresh inflows could produce a stronger trend.

Sean Dawson, head of research at the on-chain options platform Derive, said the probability of Bitcoin pushing decisively through the six-figure threshold before Christmas has dwindled. “The chance of Bitcoin reclaiming and settling above $100,000 by Christmas now sits at around 24%,” he said. Only a month ago, those expectations were much higher. The new data shows how quickly sentiment has cooled.

Also read: Coinbase opens up full Solana token trading through in-app DEX for its 120 million users

Yet Dawson sees powerful signals further out. He said bullish traders are now “levering up for an explosive Q1”, pointing to a surge in call-option activity. Contracts at the $130,000 and $180,000 strikes for March 2026 have seen heavy accumulation. For analysts tracking order flow, it is a clear indication that traders believe the real opportunity lies beyond the holiday relative lull.

Several factors support this shift. The broader macro backdrop, while still uncertain, is expected to tilt more supportive as rate cuts stack up over the next year. Institutional flows into Bitcoin-linked products have remained steady. And despite short-term weakness, long-term holders continue to accumulate, reducing available supply on exchanges. Together, these dynamics help explain why bullish conviction has not evaporated but merely migrated to the first quarter.

Crypto traders shift focus to January after the Fed rate cut fails to spark a Santa rally

For now, the market must navigate what is typically the quietest period of the year. Liquidity remains thin. Retail participation tends to fall away. And many major players prefer to avoid taking fresh risks before books close.

The lack of a Santa rally may frustrate some, but the data shows a more nuanced picture. Bitcoin has already logged strong gains this year, and the market is behaving more like a maturing asset class than in previous cycles. Sharp rallies on news events are becoming less common. Instead, traders appear more focused on multi-month positioning and macro catalysts that could build momentum through the early months of 2026.

The next few weeks may still deliver surprises, but expectations have shifted decisively. The real story is no longer the December dip. It is the growing belief that early 2026 could set the tone for the next major phase of Bitcoin’s market cycle.

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Summarize Any Stock’s Earnings Call in Seconds Using FMP API

Turn lengthy earnings call transcripts into one-page insights using the Financial Modeling Prep APIPhoto by Bich Tran Earnings calls are packed with insights. They tell you how a company performed, what management expects in the future, and what analysts are worried about. The challenge is that these transcripts often stretch across dozens of pages, making it tough to separate the key takeaways from the noise. With the right tools, you don’t need to spend hours reading every line. By combining the Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) API with Groq’s lightning-fast LLMs, you can transform any earnings call into a concise summary in seconds. The FMP API provides reliable access to complete transcripts, while Groq handles the heavy lifting of distilling them into clear, actionable highlights. In this article, we’ll build a Python workflow that brings these two together. You’ll see how to fetch transcripts for any stock, prepare the text, and instantly generate a one-page summary. Whether you’re tracking Apple, NVIDIA, or your favorite growth stock, the process works the same — fast, accurate, and ready whenever you are. Fetching Earnings Transcripts with FMP API The first step is to pull the raw transcript data. FMP makes this simple with dedicated endpoints for earnings calls. If you want the latest transcripts across the market, you can use the stable endpoint /stable/earning-call-transcript-latest. 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Cleaning and Preparing Transcript Data Raw transcripts from the API often include long paragraphs, speaker tags, and formatting artifacts. Before sending them to an LLM, it helps to organize the text into a cleaner structure. Most transcripts follow a pattern: prepared remarks from executives first, followed by a Q&A session with analysts. Separating these sections gives better control when prompting the model. In Python, you can parse the transcript and strip out unnecessary characters. A simple way is to split by markers such as “Operator” or “Question-and-Answer.” Once separated, you can create two blocks — Prepared Remarks and Q&A — that will later be summarized independently. This ensures the model handles each section within context and avoids missing important details. 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Summarize the following earnings call section for {symbol} ({quarter} {year}). Be factual and concise. 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Here’s how it comes together in Python: def summarize_earnings_call(symbol, quarter, year, api_key, groq_key): # Step 1: Fetch transcript from FMP url = f"https://financialmodelingprep.com/api/v3/earning_call_transcript/{symbol}?quarter={quarter}&year={year}&apikey={api_key}" resp = requests.get(url) resp.raise_for_status() data = resp.json() if not data or "content" not in data[0]: return f"No transcript found for {symbol} {quarter} {year}" text = data[0]["content"] # Step 2: Clean and split clean_text = re.sub(r'\s+', ' ', text).strip() if "Question-and-Answer" in clean_text: prepared, qna = clean_text.split("Question-and-Answer", 1) else: prepared, qna = clean_text, "" # Step 3: Summarize with Groq prepared_summary = summarize_section(prepared, symbol, quarter, year) qna_summary = summarize_section(qna, symbol, quarter, year) # Step 4: Merge into final one-pager return f"""# {symbol} Earnings One-Pager — {quarter} {year}## Prepared Remarks{prepared_summary}## Q&A Highlights{qna_summary}""".strip()# Example runprint(summarize_earnings_call("NVDA", 2, 2024, API_KEY, GROQ_API_KEY)) With this setup, generating a summary becomes as simple as calling one function with a ticker and date. 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