Lighter Shifts 25% of LIT Supply as Traders Anticipate Possible

• Lighter moved 250 million LIT tokens, about 25% of supply, sparking big airdrop talk before the TGE.
• If split across 12 million points, each could get around 20.8 LIT worth maybe $68 at speculated prices.
• Network upgrade hits December 21, volume’s exploding, and Polymarket bets point to a late December drop.

Lighter, the decentralized perpetual exchange on Solana, just moved 250 million LIT tokens, about 25% of the total supply, sparking big talk about a user airdrop before the token generation event by December 31. Analysts spotted the transfer, and people are guessing these could go to points holders from the program’s seasons.

The points system rewarded trading in Season 1 (private beta January to September 2025, 100,000 to 110,000 users, $550 billion volume, 8.65 million points) and Season 2 (public mainnet October to December, adding 500,000 users for 640,000 to 750,000 total, weekly 250,000 to 600,000 points, no wash trading).

With roughly 12 million points out, a straight split of 250 million LIT would mean about 20.8 tokens per point. Market guesses put each at $3 to $5, so points could be worth $58 to $104, or around $68 average per some chatter.

Network Upgrade and Timing

A network upgrade hits December 21 at 12 UTC, including an airdrop allocation module from past updates. CEO Vladimir Novakovski keeps it mysterious: “The tiger doesn’t let you know in advance when it will appear.” Polymarket bets lean toward a December 29 drop, with insiders wagering on timing and fully diluted value.

Trading volume tells the growth story. Daily perps started under $1 billion early 2025, climbed to $2 to $4 billion mid year, then often topped $5 billion from August, peaking $18 to $20 billion single days in October and November. Annualized fees hit $167.9 million, 30 day volume $248.3 billion, open interest around $1.7 billion.

Community discussion mixes excitement and caution. Hexdrunker sees points from $33 low to $150 high. ProMint pegs premarket $3 to $5 per LIT. The 250 million move has everyone watching, could be the airdrop fuel or something else. With the upgrade and TGE looming, Lighter’s year end plans have the whole perp crowd on edge.