Silent Bitcoin Bets Rise; Can It Climb the $90k Wall?

The cryptocurrency markets resumed trading within the same range-bound limits on Monday, following a weekend of consolidation.

As traders avoided taking risks, the market became very volatile. At over $3 trillion, the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies is relatively stable despite the price action see saw.

There was only a slight uptick in trading activity.

A key sign of short-term positioning, rather than deep-seated conviction buying, is the market volume over the past 24 hours, which has surged to the $70-80 billion range.

The weekend's limited liquidity led to heightened intraday volatility, with no significant breakouts occurring.

Bitcoin had a disappointing fourth quarter, and now the markets are divided on what comes next for the crypto.

Although the underlying trend is steady, it is not yet ready to unfold, as indicated by the recent volatility in Bitcoin prices.

At the moment, Bitcoin's future is highly dependent on liquidity and larger economic variables, which means its trajectory is likely to be unpredictable.

As the Asian markets started the day on a high note, Bitcoin stayed constant at above $89,000 on Monday.

As we near the end of the year, traders seem to be making adjustments to their holdings across a variety of sectors, including commodities, cryptocurrencies, and stocks, as liquidity dwindles in anticipation of the holidays.

Technology stocks led a 0.5% gain in an all-Asia Pacific index that followed last week's drop, which prompted talk of a possible last rally into 2026.

Although the cryptocurrency market did not start the change, early trading saw Bitcoin rise by about 1%, suggesting a more stable sentiment in risk assets.

Options Expiry & Risks

A Bloomberg report showed that current options indicate that Bitcoin is approaching the final weeks of 2025, facing significant pressure, with approximately $23 billion in contracts expiring on Friday, which could further increase the already heightened volatility.

The figure represents over 50% of the total open interest on Deribit, which is the leading platform for Bitcoin options.

The current situation indicates that traders are anticipating ongoing risks in a market that has become increasingly treacherous.

The overall market value of Bitcoin experienced fluctuations exceeding $130 billion within just an hour during US trading on Wednesday, leading to a wave of liquidations for both long and short positions.

That difference is emphasized by the tactics surrounding the expiration on December 26.

A possible year-end surge may be in the cards, given the concentration of call options around $100,000 and $120,000 strike prices.

There is a lot of pessimistic sentiment influencing the outlook right now, with a lot of put option exposure at $85,000.

Based on data from STS Digital, this level is linked to almost $1.4 billion in open interest, which could act as a gravitational "magnet" when the options expiration date draws near.

According to BRN's Timothy Misir, the market is "trapped in a fragile holding pattern" since Bitcoin has failed to regain important levels.

Bulls vs. Bears

The bulls and the bears alike have been frustrated by Bitcoin's relatively constant price during December. As we approach the end of the year, the overall framework remains within a specified range, despite short-term volatility.

Although it has been virtually unchanged over the last week, Bitcoin's value has climbed by about 5% in the last 30 days.

Uncertainty is shown by the lack of a distinct route.

Notable changes are taking place, according to recent onchain statistics, particularly in the spot market.

An important inquiry has been prompted by the intensification of the spike in buying activity. Could Bitcoin finally break through its biggest immediate obstacle thanks to this shift in demand?

Large holders' activity and asset movement from exchanges are two prominent on-chain indicators that have recently come to light. After a steep drop on December 17, the number of entities holding 1,000 BTC or more has increased initially.

This indicator keeps tabs on major players, or whales, in the industry. A rise in this figure suggests that bigger organizations are hoarding assets rather than distributing them.

The number of these noteworthy companies has been rising steadily since December 20. What matters most is the trend, not the fact that it is somewhat below the recent six-month peaks.

As the price of Bitcoin stabilises, large investors are gradually adding to their holdings.

Second, there has been a marked uptick in spending, as shown by the shift in the exchange net position. The amount of coins moving into or out of centralized exchanges is measured by this metric.

There may be less immediate selling pressure as more coins leave exchanges, which is a sign that buyers are moving Bitcoin into their own custody.

Exits from exchanges totaled about 26,098 BTC on December 19. The outflows reached 41,493 BTC on December 21. The net outflows increased by 59% in just two days.

There is great value in that gap. Top investors have maintained a steady but controlled accumulation. But the rate of currency withdrawals has accelerated. There will be an instant uptick in demand across the board as a result of the combination of larger investors, smaller retail, and mid-sized buyers.

All things considered, these signs point to a growing need for quick transactions even though the price has not yet broken out.

Will Bitcoin's Play Depend on Price Action?

The attractiveness of these purchases is dependent on key Bitcoin price levels. At roughly $89,250, there is a significant obstacle.

Along with multiple failed attempts to progress further, this threshold has seen limited upward moves since mid-December. Markets often stay within their present ranges unless Bitcoin manages to solidly close above a certain level.

Analysts say a significant overhead resistance level is at $96,700. If buyers manage to reclaim $89,250, Bitcoin may attempt to surpass this barrier.

This will serve as the next significant evaluation after the price has faced rejection at that level on several occasions.

The critical short-term support level to watch on the downside is $87,590. If it were to drop below, $83,550 would come into play, and should selling intensify, the potential downside could extend to $80,530.

Bitcoin is facing a confluence of rising demand and a constant obstacle to price appreciation.The price is approaching a critical crossroads, whales are being cautious with their additions, and exchange withdrawals are on the rise.

The real question is, if the present range is going to last until the new year, or will this surge in demand eventually surpass $89,250?

Neutral to Slightly Bearish Tone

The most recent US data has shown a somewhat muted trend, which has given some relief. Additionally, user confidence was bolstered as the price of Bitcoin remained above critical demand levels, and trust was further reinforced by the accumulation of large cryptocurrencies.

The price of Bitcoin is maintaining its crucial short-term support level. The price of Ethereum is maintaining its position above the significant $3,000 threshold. Certain large-cap tokens are drawing interest from those looking to buy on the dip.

Consistent losses of prominent cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, and others, at levels of resistance.

In the wake of Bitcoin's recent recoveries, competing cryptocurrencies have failed to gain significant traction. Efforts to resolve leverage concerns in derivatives markets are ongoing despite persistent obstacles.

Because neither side has complete control, the market stays within a narrow range and reacts quickly to new information.

Outlook

There are some professionals who think things will get better soon. Analysts have concluded that there is not enough downside liquidity to support a substantial sell-off at the moment.

Bitcoin might see a price surge into the $98,000–$104,000 region if a correction were to occur. This region is in line with zones of high liquidity and outstanding differences in fair value.

However, the risk is that this action may be a bull trap rather than the beginning of a new upward trend. The recent uptick may attract latecomers before we see another downturn unfold.

Uncertainty is likely to define the year 2026. According to the most recent options data, the odds of Bitcoin staying at $50,000 or soaring to $250,000 by year's end are nearly equal. The discrepancy suggests doubt rather than confidence.

At $89,250, the price of bitcoin tried to begin a new uptrend but was unsuccessful. Bitcoin is currently consolidating below $89,000 and could respond negatively.

Now that it has hit above the $86,800 mark, Bitcoin is on a rebound trend. The current price has surpassed the 100-hourly simple moving average and is now above $87,000.

According to the data feed from Kraken, the hourly chart for the BTC/USD pair shows support at $87,650, and a notable upward channel is taking shape.

If the pair can find support above the $89,500 level, it may be able to continue its upward trend.

TradingView said that as Bitcoin attempted to start a fresh recovery trend, the price of the token surpassed the $88,200 and $89,000 marks.

Bitcoin ran into the $89,250 resistance zone and struggled to keep going up.

Following gains of just under $89,000, the present price is leveling off. After rising from the $84,421 swing low to the $89,238 high, there was a small decline that tested the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

Above $87,500, nevertheless, the optimistic investors are actively involved.

At its current price of more than $87,500, Bitcoin is trading higher than the 100-hour simple moving average. Support for the hourly BTC/USD pair is at $87,650, and a notable rising channel is forming.

If the market continues to show strength, there may be opportunities for further appreciation in value.

The current resistance level is approximately $89,000. The initial significant barrier is around the $89,250 mark. The upcoming barrier may be $89,500.

A breakthrough above the $89,500 resistance level could propel the price to new heights.

In this scenario, the price may increase and approach the $90,500 resistance level. Further increases could propel the price to the $92,000 mark. The upcoming thresholds for the bullish trend may be $92,650 and $93,200.

Downside Risks

Further declines could be in store for Bitcoin if it is unable to break through the $89,000 resistance mark. The $87,500 mark is where you can get immediate support. Around the $87,000 mark is where initial significant support is located.

Near the $86,800 level, which is also the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the upward advance that began at the $84,421 swing low and crested at $89,238, the next support region is likely to be located.

In the near term, the price can fall to the $85,500 support level if losses continue. In the medium term, Bitcoin's price can fall more precipitously if it drops below $84,400, the main support level.

TradingView's Analysis:

• In the hourly MACD, the bullish zone is experiencing a decline in the MACD's strength.
• In just one hour of analysis, the RSI readings indicate that BTC/USD has surpassed the 50 threshold with this recent movement.
• The levels of $87,500 and $86,800 represent significant support points.
• Key Resistance Levels - $89,000 and $89,500.

What Do Technicals Show?

TradingView's overall technical analysis gauge, based on key data from moving averages, oscillators, and pivots, shows a neutral signal for the coming week.

The sub readings for moving average indicators point to a sell bias, while the oscillators' readings point to a neutral stance.

Separately, InvestTech's Algorithmic Overall Analysis points to a hold signal even as the analysis shows the recommendation for one to six weeks as weak negative.

According to InvestTech, "Bitcoin has broken through the ceiling of a falling trend channel in the short term. This indicates a slower falling rate initially, or the start of a more horizontal development."

The research added that "The token has support at $86,000 and resistance at $93,400. The crypto is assessed as technically slightly negative for the short term."

On flows, SoSoValue data shows that the Daily Total Net Open Interest (Delta), which indicates the difference in the daily changes of open contracts between Calls and Puts, was -$64.63 million as of Thursday.

That shows an increase in open contracts for puts and suggests that market makers need to sell underlying assets to hedge their positions, resulting in the sale of more ETFs.

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