Rising fuel costs threaten consumer confidence – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank analysts Shreyas Gopal and Sanjay Raja note that UK consumer confidence in March 2026 was surprisingly resilient, sitting between levels seen at the onset of Covid and the 2022 energy shock. They stress that rising fuel prices, the ongoing global Oil crisis, and geopolitical risks could quickly erode this resilience and weigh on UK spending and growth.

Confidence stands between past crisis lows

“However, amidst the still-unfolding global oil crisis, it is worth highlighting the rapid shifts observed around recent crises, and where the latest March 2026 reading sits in this context. The Covid lockdown of March 2020 prompted a special survey in the second half of the month. This, unsurprisingly, revealed substantial declines from a starting point which, in hindsight, appeared remarkably resilient given the crisis had already begun impacting other regions.”

“Similarly, in 2022, all components of the index deteriorated as the European energy crisis took hold, albeit to a lesser initial degree.”

“According to the latest report, the broad starting point for consumer confidence lies in between the March 2020 (pre-lockdown) and early 2022 levels.”

“Since this survey concluded, however, fuel prices have continued to rise. Absent a ceasefire and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, sustained relative resilience in the UK confidence data in the coming month would thus be surprising — as perhaps alluded to by the much weaker BRC Consumer Confidence data.”

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)