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Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

888 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
Polymarket Partners With Chainlink To Boost Prediction Markets

Polymarket Partners With Chainlink To Boost Prediction Markets

The post Polymarket Partners With Chainlink To Boost Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, is integrating Chainlink’s oracle network to improve the accuracy and speed of its market resolutions, the companies announced Friday. Polymarket has partnered with Chainlink to integrate its data standard into Polymarket’s resolution process, according to a Friday press release shared with Cointelegraph. The collaboration will initially focus on enhancing the accuracy and speed of asset pricing resolutions, with plans to expand into additional markets. While Polymarket’s pricing prediction integration with Chainlink is live on the Polygon mainnet immediately, the parties expect to explore additional prediction markets using Chainlink in the future. Polymarket uses Polygon by default Chainlink’s integration marks a significant development for Polymarket as the platform uses the Polygon blockchain — a layer-2 (L2) Ethereum scaling solution — as its underlying network. Launched in 2020, Polymarket has emerged as a major crypto-enabled prediction market platform, where users can place bets on the outcomes of future events using digital assets like Circle’s USDC (USDC) stablecoin on the Polygon blockchain. While Polygon is focused on delivering faster and cheaper transactions by processing transactions off the main Ethereum chain, Chainlink provides an oracle network that connects smart contracts on the blockchain with real-world external data. As such, while Polygon is Polymarket’s chain by default, Chainlink will be sending data to settle the markets into the Polygon chain in production. Related: US Government taps Chainlink, Pyth to publish economic data onchain “Polymarket’s decision to integrate Chainlink’s proven oracle infrastructure is a pivotal milestone that greatly enhances how prediction markets are created and settled,” Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov said, adding: “When market outcomes are resolved by high-quality data and tamper-proof computation from oracle networks, prediction markets evolve into reliable, real-time signals the world can trust.” “Subjective” markets explored In addition to pricing market integration, which has a clear,…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/13

Polymarket Teams With Chainlink on Fast Crypto Price Feeds

Polymarket Teams With Chainlink on Fast Crypto Price Feeds

The post Polymarket Teams With Chainlink on Fast Crypto Price Feeds appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Polymarket integrates Chainlink oracles for faster, tamper-proof crypto price resolutions Chainlink’s automation enables near-instant settlement for 15-minute prediction markets Polymarket expands with QCEX acquisition and X partnership to scale U.S. operations Polymarket has teamed up with Chainlink to launch crypto prediction markets that settle in 15 minutes with near-instant resolution. The integration is now live on Polygon mainnet and combines Polymarket’s platform with Chainlink’s oracle network. Why Chainlink Oracles Matter for Polymarket Chainlink Data Streams provide timestamped, low-latency price feeds while Chainlink Automation handles on-chain settlement. This removes delays that typically slow prediction markets and ensures tamper-proof, verifiable results. Near-Instant Settlement Boosts Market Reliability The system enables Bitcoin and other crypto markets to resolve almost instantly, reducing the risk of disputes. Hundreds of live trading pairs are covered in the first rollout, with plans to expand into more complex markets. What’s Next for Prediction Market Innovation Beyond price outcomes, Polymarket and Chainlink aim to tackle subjective markets that today depend on social voting, a step that could transform how prediction markets are run. Chainlink Secures Data Accuracy at Scale Chainlink’s oracle network already secures nearly $100 billion in DeFi value and supports tens of trillions in transactions.  Co-founder Sergey Nazarov called the partnership a step toward making prediction markets reliable real-time information sources. How Chainlink eliminates single points of failure is by decentralizing data inputs, thereby minimizing manipulation risks and strengthening user trust that match real market prices. Polymarket Expands With QCEX and X Partnerships Polymarket recently closed a $112 million acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, to re-enter the U.S. market. The platform also struck a partnership with X to deliver personalized market recommendations. Why Polymarket’s Expansion Strategy Matters These moves highlight Polymarket’s intent to scale operations and attract institutional users while delivering new retail-focused services. Related:…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/13

Chainlink Cements 62% Dominance After Inking Major Polymarket Deal to Supercharge Prediction Market Accuracy

Chainlink Cements 62% Dominance After Inking Major Polymarket Deal to Supercharge Prediction Market Accuracy

Chainlink has deepened its grip on the oracle market after announcing a major partnership with Polymarket, the world’s largest on-chain prediction market, to enhance market resolution accuracy and speed. The deal cements Chainlink’s dominance at 62% of the oracle sector, according to DeFiLlama, indicating its growing role as key infrastructure for decentralized finance.Source: DefiLlama Chainlink Data Streams Now Power Bitcoin and Ether Prediction Markets on Polymarket According to the announcement, Polymarket has integrated Chainlink’s Data Streams and Automation services into its resolution process, with the system now live on the Polygon mainnet. The collaboration allows near-instant settlement of prediction markets, beginning with asset-pricing markets on assets such as Bitcoin and Ether. Chainlink’s decentralized networks deliver low-latency, timestamped data while eliminating single points of failure, ensuring that resolutions are both secure and verifiable. Polymarket, which has grown rapidly since launching in 2020, has positioned itself as a global hub for real-time information. The platform recently acquired QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, in a $112 million deal to prepare for a return to the U.S. market. It has also partnered with X to integrate personalized market recommendations into the social platform. The latest move with Chainlink further strengthens Polymarket’s infrastructure, reducing reliance on subjective voting systems and minimizing resolution risks in more complex market types. Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov described the deal as a “pivotal milestone,” adding that resolving markets with tamper-proof computation and high-quality data transforms prediction markets into reliable signs “the world can trust.” The integration marks the beginning of a broader collaboration between the two companies, with plans to expand beyond asset-pricing into more subjective prediction categories. The agreement comes at a time when Chainlink has accelerated its expansion into traditional finance and government-linked data services. On August 11, the firm partnered with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) to provide on-chain foreign exchange and precious metals rates through its Data Streams, using ICE’s Consolidated Feed sourced from over 300 marketplaces. Two weeks later, Japanese financial giant SBI Group revealed a collaboration with Chainlink to develop crypto tools for banks and institutions in Japan and the Asia-Pacific region, with an initial focus on tokenized bonds and stablecoin reserves. On August 28, the U.S. Department of Commerce began publishing official economic data on-chain via Chainlink, including GDP and inflation indicators, marking the first time government statistics were made verifiable on blockchain networks. With nearly $100 billion in total value locked in DeFi secured by its oracles and trillions of dollars in transaction value supported to date, Chainlink continues to assert itself as the backbone of decentralized data infrastructure. Polymarket Cleared by U.S. Regulators as Platform Eyes Major Expansion The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in July closed their investigations into Polymarket without taking enforcement action. The probes, launched in late 2022, examined whether the New York-based platform continued to allow U.S. users access after agreeing to block them under a prior settlement. The regulatory closure marks a turning point for Polymarket, which has since secured clearance to re-enter the U.S. market. On September 3, the CFTC granted a no-action letter covering event contracts through QCX LLC and QC Clearing LLC, entities Polymarket acquired earlier this year in a $112 million deal. The relief provides a framework for offering compliant prediction contracts, shielding participants from enforcement tied to swap reporting and recordkeeping requirements. Polymarket has rapidly scaled into the largest prediction market globally, processing more than $8 billion in wagers, including $2.5 billion during the 2024 U.S. election cycle. In the first half of 2025 alone, users placed around $6 billion in bets. Currently, the total volume of prediction markets is $1.1 billion, with Polymarket accounting for more than 25 million positions and a user base of more than 1.2 million traders. The platform is also nearing a $200 million funding round led by Founders Fund that would value it at $1 billion. Meanwhile, Donald Trump Jr.’s 1789 Capital has joined as an investor and advisory partner, indicating growing institutional and political backing for the fast-expanding platform

Author: CryptoNews

2025/09/13

Polymarket taps Chainlink to power real-time prediction markets

Polymarket taps Chainlink to power real-time prediction markets

The post Polymarket taps Chainlink to power real-time prediction markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Takeaways Polymarket is integrating Chainlink’s data services to provide real-time asset pricing prediction markets. The collaboration supports automated, tamper-proof market settlements on Polygon using Chainlink oracles and automation. Polymarket has adopted Chainlink’s data standard to power its resolution process, the system that determines the final outcome of prediction markets, according to a Friday announcement. Starting with asset pricing markets, the partnership will work to deliver more accurate and timely resolutions for Polymarket prediction markets. The two teams also aim for future expansion after initial deployment. The integration, now live on the Polygon mainnet, enables the creation of real-time prediction markets around asset pricing, including hundreds of live crypto trading pairs. “Polymarket’s decision to integrate Chainlink’s proven oracle infrastructure is a pivotal milestone that greatly enhances how prediction markets are created and settled,” said Sergey Nazarov, co-founder of Chainlink. “When market outcomes are resolved by high-quality data and tamper-proof computation from oracle networks, prediction markets evolve into reliable, real-time signals the world can trust. The partnership leverages Chainlink Data Streams and Chainlink Automation to provide low-latency, timestamped oracle reports and automated on-chain settlement of markets. Chainlink’s data infrastructure has secured nearly $100 billion in DeFi total value and enabled tens of trillions in transaction value. The platform is now powering a US government initiative to publish official economic data on multiple blockchains. Polymarket is a decentralized platform where users trade shares on real-world events, and the resolution process determines the actual outcome, allowing markets to close and enabling winning shares to be paid out. The company recently acquired QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, for $112 million, opening the door to a US market return. It has also joined forces with Elon Musk’s X to provide an integrated product with data-driven insights and personalized recommendations. ] Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/real-time-prediction-markets-chainlink/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/12

Prediction Markets Call 2026 Split: Democrats Favored for House, GOP for Senate

Prediction Markets Call 2026 Split: Democrats Favored for House, GOP for Senate

The post Prediction Markets Call 2026 Split: Democrats Favored for House, GOP for Senate appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction markets are serving a split-decision special: Democrats have the edge for the House in 2026, while Republicans hold the Senate lead, and the 2028 presidential board has JD Vance on top with Gavin Newsom chasing. 2026 Outlook—Democrats Eye House Control, Republicans Hold Senate Edge Data collected Friday, Sept. 12, 2025, shows a neat partisan […] Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/prediction-markets-call-2026-split-democrats-favored-for-house-gop-for-senate/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/12

Prediction Market PredictIt Launches in October—Here’s What to Expect

Prediction Market PredictIt Launches in October—Here’s What to Expect

The post Prediction Market PredictIt Launches in October—Here’s What to Expect appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction market PredictIt, which started out as an academic platform focused on political forecasts, is preparing to launch a new exchange after getting the nod from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. PredictIt, operated by the D.C.-based Aristole, said last week that the CFTC approved its applications to operate as both a designated contract market, or DCM, and derivatives clearing organization, or DCO. “With these approvals, Aristotle will launch a new exchange designed to provide U.S. traders with more diverse markets, deeper liquidity, and broader participation,” the company said last week in a press release. The company plans to expand beyond just political markets, but it hasn’t yet provided details on the types of specific markets it plans to roll out. “The market offerings will branch out as is the case with other DCMs,” an Aristotle spokesperson told Decrypt, referring to other regulated prediction markets like Kalshi. We’re not announcing other specific details right now,” the spokesperson said.  The company said the platform has grown to include more than 400,000 active users, but PredictIt faced a long journey getting these key approvals from U.S. regulators. The platform initially launched in 2014 as an academic, real-money prediction market operated by Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand. It has support and is run by Artistotle, Inc., a D.C.-based political technology and data firm founded in 1983 by John Artistotle Phillips. Phillips is CEO of Aristotle, Inc.. It hasn’t always been clear whether he holds the same title, but the spokesperson confirmed he does. The 2014 launch proceeded after the company obtained a no action letter from the CFTC, which granted it permission to “operate a not-for-profit market for event contracts, and to offer event contracts to U.S. persons, without registration as a designated contract market, foreign board of trade, or swap…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/10

Kristin Johnson Warns of Retail Risk, Regulatory Gaps in Prediction Markets

Kristin Johnson Warns of Retail Risk, Regulatory Gaps in Prediction Markets

The post Kristin Johnson Warns of Retail Risk, Regulatory Gaps in Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Outgoing Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson warned that prediction markets pose increasing risks to retail investors. She cited a lack of oversight and regulatory clarity as primary concerns. In her farewell public address on Wednesday, Johnson voiced concern that some market participants are offering leveraged prediction market contracts to retail investors without clear regulatory boundaries. “As of today, we have too few guardrails and too little visibility into the prediction market landscape,” she said in a farewell speech at the Brookings Institution. “There is an urgent need for the commission to express in a clear voice our expectations related to these contracts,” she added. Johnson, appointed to the CFTC in 2022, said she was “deeply disappointed” the agency had failed to implement a rule addressing political event contracts. These contracts, which allow users to bet on outcomes of elections or sports events, have rapidly expanded in popularity and volume. Related: US regulator opens pathway for Americans to trade on offshore crypto exchanges Johnson slams license flipping loophole Johnson also criticized the growing “rent or buy my license” trend in derivatives markets. She said some firms seek licenses for traditional products, then pivot to self-certifying prediction market contracts once approved. “In other contexts, firms that have received a license quickly auction their newly minted license to others,” she said. Her remarks echoed broader concerns about consumer protection and market stability. Drawing parallels between the collapse of crypto firms like FTX and the 2008 financial crisis, she argued that governance and risk management failures often follow predictable patterns. “If we fail to rightly prioritize consumer protection or market stability on the road to capturing the benefits of innovation or growth, the results can be devastating,” Johnson said. She also warned that poor internal controls and compliance systems remain…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/05

CFTC Veteran Warns of Underregulated Prediction Markets

CFTC Veteran Warns of Underregulated Prediction Markets

The post CFTC Veteran Warns of Underregulated Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Outgoing CFTC Commissioner Kristin Johnson ended her tenure with a warning on prediction markets. Her remarks come amid the sector’s boom in crypto and traditional finance (TradFi). However, Johnson’s comments suggested that prediction markets could become the next financial Wild West if left unchecked. Prediction Markets Boom, but Johnson Warns of ‘Too Few Guardrails’ Sponsored Sponsored Speaking Wednesday at the Brookings Institution, Johnson cautioned that there are too few guardrails and too little visibility into the prediction market space. While issuing this warning, the outgoing CFTC commissioner expressed concern that these platforms are beginning to capture unprecedented volumes of retail cash. Her remarks landed the same day the CFTC issued a no-action letter clearing Polymarket to reenter the US. As BeInCrypto reported, a $112 million acquisition of regulated exchange QCEX facilitates Polymarket’s return to the US, enabling a significant reversal from the platform’s previous ban. Meanwhile, Johnson’s exit mirrors the dilemma regulators face, with prediction markets no longer fringe experiments but fast-rising financial platforms. Companies like Kalshi and Polymarket are transforming odds into an asset class. They offer markets on elections, economic data, and even cultural events. Investors increasingly see them as tools for both speculation and collective forecasting. Sponsored Sponsored However, Johnson warned that innovation without safeguards risks repeating past crises. She invoked the 2022 collapses of Terra/Luna, Celsius, and the FTX exchange. Further, Johnson pointed to the dangers of crypto-celebrities building exchanges without governance. “We’ve seen this movie (or bankruptcy) before,” she said. According to the outgoing CFTC commissioner, underregulated firms could again funnel retail customers into devastating losses. More closely, Johnson flagged the trend of firms renting or buying licenses to fast-track event contracts, only to pivot into new products with minimal oversight. Sponsored Sponsored She framed consumer protection and market stability as the twin pillars of…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/05

From Wisdom of Crowds to Manipulation Risks

From Wisdom of Crowds to Manipulation Risks

The post From Wisdom of Crowds to Manipulation Risks appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction markets are rising strongly, from the hundreds of millions of dollars raised by Kalshi and Polymarket to their growing applications across crypto and traditional finance.  Considered a new asset class, prediction markets promise to change how people consume information — instead of reading headlines, they will look at odds to assess probabilities. Behind this enormous potential, however, lie the risks of regulation, manipulation, and herd behavior, forcing investors to remain cautious in the face of this “data wave.” When Prediction Markets Become “An Asset Class” Prediction markets are emerging as forecasting tools and a new asset class within the crypto ecosystem. Platforms and venture funds are beginning to bet on commoditizing information and probabilities. Sponsored Sponsored This has triggered a “prediction market war,” with massive fundraising rounds, backing from top venture capital firms, and expansion into new use cases — all fueling competition. It shows how the market is shifting from “news” to “odds” as a source of value. Comparison between Polymarket & Kalshi platforms. Source: Delphi Digital Investors increasingly view prediction markets as a strategic asset class, not just entertainment or research products. While this competition accelerates innovation, it also introduces systemic risks if the business models are not yet sustainable. Many community members call this the “next big wave” of the current cycle. They argue that the next generation of users won’t read headlines anymore but will “check the odds.” In theory, prediction markets work well because they aggregate scattered information from many participants and turn it into a number representing collective wisdom — sometimes even more accurate than expert forecasts. This explains why protocols and projects focused on prediction highlight the “wisdom of crowds” advantage in pricing event probabilities. On the other hand, this advantage only materializes when the market has enough liquidity, transparency, and protection…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/04

The $3M Star Wars Lightsaber That Shows Why Information Is the Next Big Asset Class

The $3M Star Wars Lightsaber That Shows Why Information Is the Next Big Asset Class

The post The $3M Star Wars Lightsaber That Shows Why Information Is the Next Big Asset Class appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. About the Author Loxley Fernandes is CEO at Dastan, the parent company of Myriad, Rug Radio, and Decrypt. He served as CEO of Rug Radio before co-founding Dastan. Prior to Dastan he had spent over a decade as a serial entrepreneur, founder and operator with an emphasis on financial technologies that advanced the direct to consumer movement. When Darth Vader’s lightsaber goes up for auction this week, all eyes will be on the price tag. Memorabilia vendor Propstore estimates the saber (used in the “Star Wars” films “The Empire Strikes Back” and “Return of the Jedi”) could fetch between $1 million and $3 million. For collectors, it’s a holy grail artifact. For one bidder, it may be the ultimate trophy. But for everyone else? The moment the gavel falls, the story is over. Unless, of course, the real story isn’t the sale itself, but the market that could form around it.  The Auction Is Just the Beginning The sale of Vader’s saber is more than a collectible transfer. It’s a signal. A data point that tells collectors, auction houses, and investors what cultural artifacts are worth. But it’s a signal that only arrives once, at the closing hammer. Until then, we’re left with speculation: Will it break $3 million? Will it set a new record for a “Star Wars” prop? How much cultural cachet does Vader command compared to Luke or Han? These are the kinds of questions prediction markets are built to answer. Turning Belief Into a Trade In a prediction market, an auction like this becomes a tradeable event. Imagine markets for: “Will Darth Vader’s lightsaber sell above $3M?” “Will it beat the record for most expensive ‘Star Wars’ collectible?” Anyone, anywhere, could back their conviction with real money. A film historian who knows the scarcity of…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/03

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