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Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

884 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
Prediction Markets: Vitalik Buterin Reveals Why They’re Astonishingly More Accurate

Prediction Markets: Vitalik Buterin Reveals Why They’re Astonishingly More Accurate

BitcoinWorld Prediction Markets: Vitalik Buterin Reveals Why They’re Astonishingly More Accurate In the dynamic world of cryptocurrency, where information spreads at lightning speed, discerning truth from speculation is crucial. Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin recently dropped a fascinating insight, suggesting that prediction markets are surprisingly more accurate than even professional media. This bold claim invites us to explore how these innovative platforms might reshape our understanding of future events. Why Are Prediction Markets Astonishingly More Accurate? Vitalik Buterin’s argument is rooted in a fundamental principle: incentives. He highlights that participants in prediction markets face a direct financial consequence for incorrect forecasts. Unlike traditional media, which often prioritizes sensationalism, or even token governance votes where there’s no penalty for a wrong choice, prediction market participants put their money where their mouth is. Skin in the Game: When you bet on an outcome, you have a strong incentive to research thoroughly and make an informed decision. Financial Penalty: Incorrect predictions lead to monetary losses, encouraging a more disciplined and reality-based approach. Collective Wisdom: The aggregated decisions of many financially incentivized participants often yield a highly accurate probability. This ‘skin in the game’ mechanism is what, according to Buterin, helps investors stay firmly grounded in reality. It prevents the kind of rampant overhyping or baseless speculation often seen elsewhere. Instead, it fosters an environment where genuine probability and objective assessment take precedence. The Power of Incentives: How Prediction Markets Keep Investors Grounded Buterin articulated his views on Farcaster, emphasizing the stark contrast between prediction markets and other information sources. He noted that professional media and social media platforms often lack a direct accountability mechanism for the accuracy of their reports or forecasts. This can lead to a landscape filled with opinions that aren’t necessarily tethered to factual outcomes. Consider the difference: Media: Journalists and pundits might face reputational risk, but rarely a direct financial loss for an inaccurate prediction. Social Media: Influencers can spread misinformation with little to no consequence. Token Governance: While important, votes don’t typically penalize participants for choices that don’t pan out. In contrast, every trade within a prediction market is a statement of belief backed by capital. If that belief proves wrong, the capital is lost. This powerful feedback loop encourages rational thought and discourages emotional decision-making, leading to a remarkably precise collective forecast. Trusting Prediction Markets Over General Sentiment: Vitalik’s Stance Vitalik Buterin himself stated that he personally finds the probabilities presented by prediction markets to be more trustworthy than being swayed by general sentiment or the prevailing narrative. This is a significant endorsement from a highly respected figure in the crypto space, underscoring the potential for these platforms to serve as a superior source of information. The beauty of these markets lies in their ability to distill complex information into a simple, actionable probability. When a market shows an 80% chance of an event occurring, it’s not just a guess; it’s a reflection of thousands of participants’ aggregated, financially-backed assessments. This makes them incredibly valuable tools for: Forecasting Elections: Often outperforming traditional polls. Predicting Product Success: Gauging public interest and viability. Anticipating Global Events: Providing real-time, dynamic probabilities. What Challenges Do Prediction Markets Face? While the accuracy of prediction markets is compelling, it’s also important to acknowledge their limitations and challenges. These platforms, while powerful, are not without hurdles that need careful consideration for their widespread adoption and optimal function. Key challenges include: Liquidity: Smaller markets might not have enough participants or capital to generate truly robust probabilities. Regulatory Uncertainty: The legal landscape for these markets is still evolving in many jurisdictions, creating barriers to entry. Market Manipulation: Although less likely due to financial incentives, the potential for manipulation in illiquid markets exists. Ethical Concerns: Markets on sensitive topics (e.g., assassinations) raise significant ethical debates. Despite these challenges, the core mechanism of incentivized accuracy remains a powerful force, suggesting a bright future for these tools as they mature and gain broader acceptance. Addressing these issues will be key to unlocking their full potential. Vitalik Buterin’s assertion that prediction markets offer superior accuracy to professional media or social media is a powerful statement. By aligning financial incentives with truthful forecasting, these platforms create a unique environment where collective wisdom triumphs over hype and speculation. As we navigate an increasingly complex information landscape, the disciplined, reality-grounded insights offered by prediction markets could become an indispensable tool for informed decision-making. Their potential to cut through the noise and provide clear, probability-driven forecasts is truly transformative. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) 1. What are prediction markets? Prediction markets are platforms where users can bet on the outcome of future events. Participants buy and sell shares representing specific outcomes, and the market price of these shares reflects the collective probability of that event occurring. 2. Why does Vitalik Buterin believe prediction markets are more accurate? Buterin argues that prediction markets are more accurate because participants have ‘skin in the game.’ They lose money if their predictions are incorrect, creating a strong financial incentive to research thoroughly and make accurate forecasts, unlike traditional media or social media where there’s less direct accountability. 3. How do prediction markets differ from traditional media in terms of accuracy? Traditional media often faces pressures for sensationalism or clicks, and journalists typically don’t incur direct financial penalties for inaccurate reports. Prediction markets, however, directly penalize incorrect forecasts through monetary loss, leading to more grounded and reality-checked probabilities. 4. What role do incentives play in prediction markets? Incentives are central to the accuracy of prediction markets. The financial reward for correct predictions and the penalty for incorrect ones drive participants to be more rational, research-oriented, and less susceptible to emotional biases or hype, thus contributing to more reliable collective forecasts. 5. Are there any downsides or challenges to using prediction markets? Yes, prediction markets face challenges such as ensuring sufficient liquidity, navigating complex regulatory landscapes, and mitigating potential for market manipulation, especially in smaller markets. Ethical concerns can also arise depending on the event being predicted. Did Vitalik Buterin’s insights on prediction markets spark your interest? Share this article with your network and join the conversation about the future of accurate forecasting! Your friends and followers will appreciate this valuable perspective. To learn more about the latest prediction markets trends, explore our article on key developments shaping decentralized finance market insights. This post Prediction Markets: Vitalik Buterin Reveals Why They’re Astonishingly More Accurate first appeared on BitcoinWorld and is written by Editorial Team

Author: Coinstats

2025/08/27

Trump Jr. to Join Advisory Board After Investment

Trump Jr. to Join Advisory Board After Investment

The post Trump Jr. to Join Advisory Board After Investment appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Donald Trump Jr. has invested in blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket through his venture firm 1789 Capital. As part of the deal, Trump Jr. will join Polymarket’s advisory board, according to a press release. The investment comes as part of a push by 1789 Capital into crypto-related infrastructure and alternative finance tools. According to Axios, 1789 committed tens of millions of dollars to Polymarket and had been in discussions with the company for the past 18 months. Polymarket, which allows users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events such as elections, court rulings and geopolitical conflicts, has seen sharp growth in user activity. During the last U.S. election cycle alone, the platform has processed more than $8 billion in bets. That volume has put it ahead of major online sports betting operators like FanDuel, DraftKings and Betfair in terms of traffic. The company recently closed in on a $200 million funding round led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, pushing its valuation to $1 billion. While Polymarket currently blocks U.S.-based users from participating in its betting markets due to regulatory restrictions, its recent acquisition of derivatives exchange QCEX could change that. QCEX holds a license from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which opens the door for Polymarket to offer legally compliant prediction markets to American users in the future. Prediction markets — where users stake funds on the outcomes of events — have drawn renewed attention for their accuracy and speed compared to traditional polling or punditry. In the run-up to elections or court rulings, these markets often serve as real-time gauges of public sentiment and risk assessment. The investment aligns with 1789 Capital’s stated mission to back technologies that reinforce “American dynamism” — a term increasingly used by conservative venture capital circles to describe a return to domestic…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/27

Prediction Market Kalshi to Expand Onchain Presence

Prediction Market Kalshi to Expand Onchain Presence

The post Prediction Market Kalshi to Expand Onchain Presence appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The controversial company has unveiled its new head of crypto, influencer John Wang. Prediction market Kalshi revealed its new head of crypto today, a trading and crypto influencer known as John Wang, who is tasked with “bringing new crypto markets to life, growing Kalshi’s builder ecosystem, and leading the push onchain,” according to an article Wang published on X. Prediction markets have been a hot sector in crypto over the last few months, with Wang leading the push on social media and spending the last few weeks bullposting prediction markets. In a particularly viral tweet on Aug. 18, he said, “Mark my words: prediction markets will be 10x bigger than memecoins.” Kalshi also recently expanded its sports betting markets through a new partnership with Robinhood. The activation enables National Football League (NFL) and National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) American football betting markets on Robinhood, facilitated by Kalshi. Market leader Polymarket, on the other hand, announced a partnership with Elon Musk’s X in June, making the decentralized prediction market the official partner of X. Controversial Past Polymarket has been the crypto-native favorite among prediction markets since activity on the platform exploded leading up to the 2024 presidential election. It’s gearing up for an even bigger 2025, as Polymarket plots a return to the United States after acquiring a compliant platform through a $112 million deal in July. Part of the favoritism also lies in crypto-natives’ general disdain for Kalshi and some of the company’s previous tactics. Niko Kampouris, a social media specialist at Uniswap, called out Kalshi after the news broke today, saying, “Sorry, but Kalshi lost all respect after their coordinated polymarket propaganda tour during the election cycle. They tried destroying something that was built by one of our own. Don’t really care who they hire to help save face.…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/26

Buterin flags yield gap in prediction markets as debate over their role intensifies

Buterin flags yield gap in prediction markets as debate over their role intensifies

The post Buterin flags yield gap in prediction markets as debate over their role intensifies appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin weighed in on the growing debate over prediction markets, warning that the absence of interest-bearing mechanisms makes them unappealing for risk-averse traders. In a post on Farcaster, Buterin said the lack of yield forces participants to sacrifice guaranteed returns elsewhere, such as the 4% annual yield available on dollars, just to take part. He suggested that once markets solve the interest gap, “lots of hedging use cases” could emerge, driving greater volumes and adoption. Critics see structural flaws Buterin’s comments came as online discussion flared over the risks and potential of platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. The exchange was sparked by an essay from former quant trader Agustin Lebron, who argued that prediction markets are structurally flawed and could destabilize society by encouraging reflexive feedback loops between bets and real-world outcomes. Lebron contended that prediction markets lack the diverse mix of hedgers, speculators, and institutional investors that underpin traditional financial markets. He argued that without hedgers transferring risk, prediction markets devolve into contests between sharp traders and retail gamblers, leaving little room for sustainable liquidity. Supporters push back His critique drew a detailed rebuttal from pseudonymous trader @TomJrSr, who disclosed financial interests in the sector. In a lengthy response, he argued that Lebron’s view underestimates the long-term potential for prediction markets to provide valuable hedging tools for businesses, industries, and individuals exposed to real-world risks. He wrote: “Airlines face hurricanes, utilities face unpredictable temperatures, and energy firms face shifting OPEC quotas.” He further suggested that prediction markets could offer a cheaper and more direct way to hedge against such events than existing financial instruments. With Buterin highlighting missing yield and both sides of the debate staking out starkly different positions, prediction markets appear caught between two futures: one as a niche form of speculative entertainment, the…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/26

Why Vitalik Believes Interest Could Transform Prediction Markets

Why Vitalik Believes Interest Could Transform Prediction Markets

The post Why Vitalik Believes Interest Could Transform Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction markets need yield integration to attract hedging and mainstream adoption. Ethereum analysts eye $7,500–$15,650 targets as Fibonacci levels fuel optimism. Institutional demand and network strength bolster ETH’s path toward $10,000 cycle highs. Ethereum is once again at the center of intense debate, as its founder raises questions about the future of prediction markets while analysts chart ambitious price targets. The discussion underscores how both structural improvements in financial products and technical market momentum could define Ethereum’s trajectory in the coming cycle. Prediction Markets and Hedging Potential Vitalik Buterin has highlighted a major limitation of today’s prediction markets. He noted that because they don’t offer any yield, they are unattractive for serious hedging. With U.S. dollars earning nearly 4% annually, traders are unwilling to lock up capital in products that yield nothing.  Consequently, prediction markets have struggled to expand into mainstream risk management. However, once developers solve this gap, significant transaction volume could follow.  Related: Ethereum Leads a Market-Wide Rally After Powell’s “Dovish” Jackson Hole Speech Moreover, the creation of interest-enabled platforms would allow institutions and retail users alike to hedge economic risks far more effectively. This shift could unlock demand from new participants, thereby accelerating growth across the decentralized finance ecosystem. Vitalik：若预测市场提供利息将推动交易量增长，涌现大量对冲用例 关于预测市场的好坏之争，以太坊创始人 Vitalik 表示，“目前主流的预测市场大多不提供利息，这使得它们在对冲方面非常没有吸引力，因为参与其中就意味着要牺牲美元 4%… pic.twitter.com/W3PnImM2Sw — PANews (@PANewsCN) August 25, 2025 Price Momentum and Technical Outlook Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price performance continues to spark optimism. ETH is currently valued at $4,608.22 after a recent 3.39% daily decline. Despite short-term volatility, the asset has still gained 8.25% over the past week. Analysts argue that this rally reflects Ethereum’s break above long-term resistance zones.  Mags, a well-followed market analyst, pointed out that in the previous cycle, ETH delivered a 211% rally after breaching its all-time high. Applying similar Fibonacci extension levels, he projects a potential peak near $15,650.  Even if…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/25

Buterin Spotlights Missed Opportunities in Prediction Markets

Buterin Spotlights Missed Opportunities in Prediction Markets

The post Buterin Spotlights Missed Opportunities in Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Ethereum’s co-founder, Vitalik Buterin, has brought attention to a significant obstacle facing prediction markets: the lack of interest payments. In a recent communication on Farcaster, Buterin emphasized that participants in these markets miss a lucrative annual yield of approximately 4% from dollar-based assets. Continue Reading:Buterin Spotlights Missed Opportunities in Prediction Markets Source: https://en.bitcoinhaber.net/buterin-spotlights-missed-opportunities-in-prediction-markets

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/25

Why Vitalik Buterin Demands Interest Payouts

Why Vitalik Buterin Demands Interest Payouts

The post Why Vitalik Buterin Demands Interest Payouts appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction Markets’ Crucial Flaw: Why Vitalik Buterin Demands Interest Payouts Skip to content Home Crypto News Prediction Markets’ Crucial Flaw: Why Vitalik Buterin Demands Interest Payouts Source: https://bitcoinworld.co.in/prediction-markets-interest-payouts/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/25

Prediction Markets’ Crucial Flaw: Why Vitalik Buterin Demands Interest Payouts

Prediction Markets’ Crucial Flaw: Why Vitalik Buterin Demands Interest Payouts

BitcoinWorld Prediction Markets’ Crucial Flaw: Why Vitalik Buterin Demands Interest Payouts Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recently dropped a significant insight that has the crypto community buzzing. He argues that current prediction markets are fundamentally flawed when it comes to effective hedging, primarily because most platforms don’t offer interest payouts. This isn’t just a minor oversight; it’s a crucial missing piece that impacts their utility and broader adoption, according to Buterin’s recent Farcaster post, as The Block reported. What’s Missing from Today’s Prediction Markets? Imagine you have money, and you want to use it to bet on future events, perhaps to offset potential losses elsewhere – this is hedging. However, when you put your funds into most leading prediction markets, that money simply sits there. Buterin points out a key issue: users forgo a secure 4% annual yield, which is readily available on dollar-based assets. This “opportunity cost” means that by participating in a prediction market, you’re essentially losing out on potential earnings you could get elsewhere. It’s like choosing to keep your money under a mattress instead of in a savings account that pays interest. Opportunity Cost: Users lose out on potential passive income. Reduced Incentive: Less attractive for long-term hedging strategies. Inefficient Capital: Funds are not actively earning, making the platform less appealing. Why are Interest Payouts Crucial for Effective Hedging in Prediction Markets? Hedging is all about managing risk. If you’re using a prediction market to hedge against a future event, you want your capital to be as efficient as possible. Without interest payouts, the act of hedging becomes less appealing. For instance, if you’re betting against a certain outcome to protect another investment, your capital is tied up without earning anything. This makes the overall strategy less profitable and less compelling compared to traditional financial instruments that often provide some form of yield. Buterin believes that resolving this issue would unlock a wave of broader hedging scenarios, leading to significantly greater trading volumes across these platforms. Are Current Prediction Markets Falling Short? The Polymarket Example Buterin’s observations aren’t just theoretical; they align with recent market trends. For example, Polymarket, one of the leading platforms, saw its July volume decline to $1.06 billion from $1.16 billion in June. While this isn’t solely attributable to the lack of interest payouts, it highlights a potential struggle in sustaining engagement and growth. If users perceive a better return on their capital elsewhere, they will naturally gravitate towards those options. The current design of many prediction markets inadvertently creates a barrier for serious hedgers and long-term participants. Unlocking Revolutionary Potential: What If Prediction Markets Evolved? Imagine a future where prediction markets integrate interest-earning mechanisms. This transformative change could revolutionize how people approach risk management and speculation. Users could participate in markets, hedge their positions, and still earn a yield on their staked capital. This dual benefit would dramatically increase the attractiveness of these platforms, drawing in a wider audience and fostering more sophisticated trading strategies. The potential for increased trading volumes and more robust market participation is immense, moving prediction markets closer to becoming a truly powerful financial tool. In essence, Vitalik Buterin’s critique offers a vital roadmap for the evolution of prediction markets. By addressing the fundamental economic incentive of interest payouts, these platforms can transcend their current limitations and unlock a future where they serve as truly effective and appealing tools for risk management and speculation. This isn’t just about adding a feature; it’s about fundamentally rethinking their design to align with user expectations and financial realities, ultimately driving their growth and utility in the decentralized finance ecosystem. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Q1: What is the main issue Vitalik Buterin raised about prediction markets? A1: Vitalik Buterin argued that most leading prediction markets are poorly designed for hedging because they fail to offer interest payouts on users’ staked capital, leading to an opportunity cost. Q2: Why is the lack of interest payouts a problem for hedging? A2: When users participate in prediction markets, they forgo a secure annual yield (e.g., 4% on dollar-based assets). This makes hedging less appealing as their capital is tied up without earning any passive income, making the strategy less efficient. Q3: How would interest payouts benefit prediction markets? A3: Integrating interest payouts would make prediction markets more attractive for hedging and speculation. It would reduce the opportunity cost for users, likely driving greater trading volumes, fostering broader hedging scenarios, and increasing overall platform engagement. Q4: Did Buterin’s remarks coincide with any market trends? A4: Yes, his remarks coincided with Polymarket’s July volume declining to $1.06 billion from $1.16 billion in June, suggesting that current market designs might be struggling to retain user capital and engagement. Q5: What is “opportunity cost” in this context? A5: Opportunity cost refers to the potential benefit that a person misses out on when choosing one alternative over another. In this case, it’s the 4% annual yield users could earn on dollar-based assets but forgo by putting their money into a prediction market without interest. Q6: What does “hedging” mean in the context of prediction markets? A6: Hedging means making an investment to reduce the risk of adverse price movements in an asset. In prediction markets, it would involve taking a position to offset potential losses from another investment or future event. Share this insightful analysis! If you found Vitalik Buterin’s perspective on prediction markets and the importance of interest payouts as compelling as we did, spread the word. Share this article with your network and spark a conversation about the future of decentralized finance and risk management! To learn more about the latest crypto market trends, explore our article on key developments shaping Ethereum price action. This post Prediction Markets’ Crucial Flaw: Why Vitalik Buterin Demands Interest Payouts first appeared on BitcoinWorld and is written by Editorial Team

Author: Coinstats

2025/08/25

Coinbase Widens In-App DEX Trading in Bid to Become ‘Everything Exchange’

Coinbase Widens In-App DEX Trading in Bid to Become ‘Everything Exchange’

The post Coinbase Widens In-App DEX Trading in Bid to Become ‘Everything Exchange’ appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Coinbase Global has broadened access to its in-app decentralized-exchange trading, allowing customers to buy and sell any token issued on Base, the company’s Ethereum layer-2 network Coinbase Global has broadened access to its in-app decentralized-exchange trading, allowing customers to buy and sell any token issued on Base, the company’s Ethereum layer-2 network. Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong said the goal is to offer “everything you want to trade,” while product head Max Branzburg described the plan as turning Coinbase into an “Everything Exchange.” The feature, introduced about two weeks ago with roughly 1% of users, has already been activated by around 5% of the platform’s customer base. Branzburg added that the number of assets users have traded through the in-app DEX now surpasses the total tokens the company has listed on its centralized exchange in the past 13 years. Support already includes Zora creator coins, and executives signaled that prediction-market and real-world-asset tokens could follow as Base adoption grows. This is an AI-generated article powered by DeepNewz, curated by The Defiant. For more information, including article sources, visit DeepNewz. Source: https://thedefiant.io/news/defi/coinbase-widens-app-dex-trading-bid-to-everything-exchange-011da35f

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/24

Truth Network Powers the Infrastructure for a New Generation of Prediction Markets with Over 19,000 Nodes

Truth Network Powers the Infrastructure for a New Generation of Prediction Markets with Over 19,000 Nodes

The post Truth Network Powers the Infrastructure for a New Generation of Prediction Markets with Over 19,000 Nodes appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Advertisement &nbsp &nbsp Disclaimer: The below article is sponsored, and the views in it do not represent those of ZyCrypto. Readers should conduct independent research before taking any actions related to the project mentioned in this piece. This article should not be regarded as investment advice. A major milestone in the development and operational scale of Truth Network, a decentralized infrastructure protocol that supports worldwide prediction markets, was reached today with the announcement that it has surpassed 19,000 node allocations. The development shows that the deployment of decentralized forecasting infrastructure is still gaining traction. Through independently maintained nodes, Truth Network, which is intended to act as a fundamental layer for market-based prediction systems, allows distributed confirmation of real-world outcomes. These nodes are essential to maintaining network consensus, tamper resistance, and data integrity. Through a combination of ecosystem activations, public sales, and institutional collaborations, node involvement has increased. Of particular note are allocations made possible by BlockchainFactory.io, a tool that aids in the early distribution and onboarding of infrastructure participants. The rise in node count coincides with the acceleration of general interest in prediction markets. The Economist recently said that the ideal situation for the industry would be “a world where every uncertain future can be priced, hedged, and insured against,” indicating a growing understanding of prediction markets as instruments for economic insight and information gathering. The validator-based architecture of Truth Network lays the foundation for upcoming applications in decentralized intelligence and decision-making by offering a distributed way to confirm results and manage value transfer on-chain. Advertisement &nbsp About Truth Network Truth Network is a decentralized infrastructure protocol designed to power open and transparent prediction markets. By combining distributed node validation, real-time data processing, and incentive aligned token mechanics, it enables communities to create, participate in, and govern trustless…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/20

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